Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) (600104)
Key investment points
Key points of announcement: Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) in November 2021, the production and sales of 605378 / 601360 vehicles were respectively – 8.22% / – 6.61% year-on-year and + 5.82% / + 3.30% month on month. Among them, the production and sales of SAIC passenger cars in November were 103355 / 100087 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 20.60% / + 23.98% and a month on month increase of + 6.67% / + 0.09% respectively; In November, SAIC Volkswagen produced and sold 136189 / 135001 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 18.16% / – 16.46% and a month on month increase of + 17.08% / + 12.50% respectively; In November, SAIC GM produced and sold 132135 / 137026 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 16.24% / – 17.46% and a month on month increase of + 1.45% / + 3.80% respectively; SAIC GM Wuling produced and sold 195768 / 193000 vehicles respectively in November, with a year-on-year increase of – 6.43% / – 0.87% respectively; The month on month ratio was – 2.44% / – 3.50% respectively.
Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) in November, the overall production batch improved month on month, and SAIC Volkswagen improved significantly. 1) Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) as a whole, the improvement of SAIC Volkswagen is particularly obvious: the production batch of SAIC GM Wuling declined slightly on the same month on month basis, of which the sales of Wuling Xingchen, a new model listed in September, climbed rapidly in November, exceeding 15000; SAIC Volkswagen improved significantly month on month. The wholesale sales of the star model Passat exceeded 15000 in November and increased significantly month on month compared with 12000 in October; SAIC GM improved slightly month on month. After the pre-sale of Cadillac lyriq, the first medium and large luxury SUV on the “aotneng” pure electric platform, was opened on November 17, the deposit order has been close to 5000 vehicles. 2) The sales of new energy vehicles hit a record high in November, and the monthly sales of ID series continued to grow: in November, SAIC sold 82300 new energy vehicles, a record high, with a month on month ratio of + 45.60% / + 6.89% respectively. Driven by the “ID electric family”, SAIC Volkswagen sold nearly 12000 new energy vehicles in November, a year-on-year increase of + 205.5%; ID series sold more than 8000 vehicles in November, with a positive growth of more than 20% compared with 6613 vehicles in October. In the first 11 months of 2021, Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles was 638000, a year-on-year increase of + 155.5%. 3) Exports fell slightly month on month: SAIC’s overseas market sales in November were 74700 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 31.26% / – 14.15% respectively; In the first 11 months of 2021, Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) accumulated overseas market sales of 603000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 87.4%, ranking first in China; Among them, Mg brand has more than 310000 vehicles (including 245000 exported and 66000 produced overseas). From January to November 2021, Mg brand sold 46000 new energy vehicles in the markets of Britain, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and other European developed countries.
In November Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , SAIC GM went to the warehouse, SAIC GM Wuling + SAIC passenger car + SAIC Volkswagen went to the warehouse: in November Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , the enterprise’s inventory in the current month was + 4018 (compared with October), and the inventory of SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC GM, SAIC passenger car and SAIC GM Wuling in the current month was + 1188, – 4891, + 3268 and + 2768 (compared with October).
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect that with the company’s Zhiji + new r-standard high-end intelligent electric brand opening up the new energy market and constantly exploring overseas markets, Volkswagen and GM are expected to see the bottom and stabilize. We maintain the expectation of Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 25 / 262 / 27.1 billion from 2021 to 2023, corresponding to EPS of RMB 2.14/2.24/2.32 and PE of 9.8/9.3/9.0 times. Maintain the Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Overseas epidemic control is lower than expected; The recovery of passenger car demand is lower than expected; Independent brand SUV price war exceeded expectations
