Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) (603801)
In the context of the slowdown of real estate growth, the competition pattern of the home furnishing industry has been continuously optimized, the company's fundamentals are excellent, and the market share has been continuously expanded relying on the advantages of products and channels. In the future, with the continuous expansion of stores, the optimization of dealers, the development of engineering and assembly business, the performance is expected to maintain high-speed growth. First coverage, give buy rating.
Key points supporting rating
Based on kitchen cabinet business, expand product channels. The company started with the kitchen cabinet business and entered the wardrobe and wooden door business in 2015 and 2018 respectively. The wooden door of wardrobe has developed rapidly, and the income CAGR of kitchen cabinet / wardrobe / wooden door in recent two years is 13.8% / 62.9% / 136.0%. At the same time, the company launched bulk business and packaged business. In recent two years, the CAGR of bulk business was 73.4%, and the packaged business increased by 238.7% year-on-year, which promoted the acceleration of the company's revenue. In 2020, the company's revenue achieved a contrarian growth of 29.7% relying on wardrobe business and engineering channels. The company has gradually built a multi category and multi-channel layout to ensure the long-term growth potential of the company.
The increment of real estate is stable and the household pattern is optimized. 1) From the perspective of downstream demand, the volume of the real estate industry has entered a stable period. Under the influence of hardbound policy and urbanization, the real estate industry presents two major trends of hardbound housing and second-hand housing. The company is expected to continue to enjoy dividends relying on flexibility, personalized production and advance layout. 2) From the perspective of the home industry, customized home improves penetration by meeting consumers' personalized needs. At the same time, the leading customized home furnishing companies comply with the trend of packaged business, match consumer demand and improve market share through multi category expansion and supply chain construction. The pattern of customized home furnishing industry is expected to be continuously optimized.
Coordinated development of multiple categories, high-speed and large-scale bulk packaging. From the retail side, the company bases itself on the kitchen cabinet wooden door business, promotes the big home strategy, continues to expand the number of terminal stores and improve the revenue of single stores while optimizing the quality of dealers. With the gradual release of performance of the packaged business, the retail channel is expected to usher in help. From the engineering side, the company has reached strategic cooperation with poly and other high-quality real estate developers. In 2020, the company's bulk business revenue was 1.18 billion, a year-on-year increase of 83.9%, accounting for 30.6%. In the future, it is expected to accelerate the introduction of channel dividends and wardrobe and other products to maintain the high growth rate of Engineering channels.
Valuation
It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 4.93/61.0/7.24 billion respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 5.0/6.3/750 million, corresponding to 15 / 12 / 10 times of PE respectively. The company vigorously supports new products and actively expands new channels. It is expected that the company will grow better in the future. First coverage, give buy rating.
Main risks of rating
Industry competition intensifies, new product expansion fails to meet expectations, and raw material prices fluctuate
