Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) (688186)
Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) based on special steel materials, it has played an important role in the wind power supply chain, but its capacity is not limited to wind power. Different from other parts manufacturers in the industry, the company has a deep accumulation of technology and practice in terms of product matrix layout and industrial chain depth, and is expected to continuously expand the capability circle. We believe that its wide growth space has not been fully recognized.
Core view
With the advantages of special steel materials, the industrial chain extends to the field of high-end equipment finishing. Under the background of limited expansion of smelting capacity, the company's development idea is mainly to extend to downstream strong professional fields. With its profound accumulation in the whole process of smelting forming heat treatment finishing, the proportion of high-end parts business has increased year by year, accounting for 42% of revenue and 50% of gross profit in 20 years.
The pattern of wind power supply chain has been loosened, and the company has directly cut into the field of large MW to achieve "last mover first mover". After the decline of subsidies, the demand for cost reduction of the whole machine factory is improved, mainly through large-scale and fine supply chain management. From materials to finishing manufacturing, the company shows a strong capability boundary, which coincides with the needs of the whole machine factory. By directly cutting into the megawatt supply chain, the company is expected to fully enjoy the dividend of the trend of large-scale fan.
The product structure continues to be optimized, and high-end steel castings and gearbox precision parts are expected to relay the casting business and become the next growth power of the company. The company's performance increment in the next three years mainly comes from the production capacity of 100000 tons in phase II of the large casting project to be completed and put into operation at the end of the year, the Deyang steel casting business that continues to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and the gearbox precision parts that will be put into operation in succession in 22 years. The product value shows a rising trend.
Technical R & D support the company to continuously realize the development of new products and new application fields. Although the company's current product application field focuses on wind power, its capacity is not limited to wind power. The application fields of its mass production or products under research cover high-end fields such as military industry, nuclear power and energy storage. The company's current supply of wind power spindles, castings and gearboxes is precisely the embodiment of the wide boundary of the company's capability circle.
Financial forecast and investment suggestions
It is predicted that the company's EPS will be 1.15, 2.00 and 2.88 yuan in 21-23 years. According to the 29xpe valuation of comparable companies in 2022, a target price of 57.95 yuan will be given, and a buy rating will be given for the first coverage.
Risk statement
The risk of intensified competition in the large MW casting Market of wind power, the risk that the large-scale process of wind power is less than expected, the risk that the product development or customer expansion of gearbox precision parts is less than expected, the risk that the demand for large steel castings is less than expected, and the risk of repeated global epidemic.
