Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238)
Key points of announcement: Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) the output of passenger cars in November was 233732, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.48% and a month on month increase of + 21.49%; The sales volume was 223946 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.22% and a month on month increase of + 16.23%. GAC Honda produced 87632 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.90% and a month on month increase of + 18.31%; The sales volume was 77709, with a year-on-year increase of -9.97% and a month on month increase of + 3.04%. GAC Toyota produced 84826 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.36% and a month on month increase of + 38.41%; The sales volume was 85000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 9.82% and a month on month increase of + 39.34%. GAC motor produced 35161 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 3.05% and a month on month increase of – 2.40%; The sales volume was 35572 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.56% and a month on month increase of + 0.74%. The output of gac-e’an was 15134 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 98.69% and a month on month increase of + 28.42%; The sales volume was 15035 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 109.11% and a month on month increase of + 24.41%.
GAC’s overall production batch improved, the Japanese system improved significantly, and EA continued to improve: in November Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , the overall production batch achieved double-digit growth month on month, leading the industry as a whole. From January to November 2021, 1911000 vehicles were sold, a year-on-year increase of + 4.1%; From January to November 2021, the cumulative terminal sales of automobiles were 1.929 million, a year-on-year increase of + 6.6%. 1) The shortage of chips improved, and the overall joint venture brands and key models rose month on month: leiling + hanlanda contributed the main increment among Guangfeng key models. Hanlanda series sold 10385 vehicles in November, with a month on month ratio of + 11.45% / – 20.51% respectively; The sales volume of Camry Series in November was 25341, with a month on month ratio of + 33.35% / – 2.99% respectively; Leiling sold 22911 vehicles in November, with a month on month ratio of + 0.61% / + 330.98% respectively; The sales volume of willanda Series in November was 18043, with a month on month ratio of + 62.75% / + 119.02% respectively. Guangben’s production batch continued to improve month on month. Among the key models, accord sold 25049 vehicles in November, with a month on month ratio of + 3.67% / + 12.83% respectively; The sales volume of Binzhi Series in November was 17875, with a month on month ratio of + 13.50% / + 30.70%; Fit sold 10286 vehicles in November, with a month on month ratio of -4.98% / – 4.73%; Haoying series sold 16919 vehicles in November, with a month on month ratio of + 26.36% / + 0.34% respectively. 2) GAC motor: Wholesale improved slightly month on month, and the output decreased slightly month on month. The sales volume of the key model zhongyingbao in November was 10052, which continued to be popular. 3) GAC’s production batch in Egypt and Angola achieved double-digit positive growth month on month, contributing an important increment to the new energy market. Gac-e’an accumulated terminal sales of 106985 vehicles from January to November 2021, meeting the company’s annual sales target of 100000 vehicles ahead of schedule.
The group as a whole + GAC + gac-e’an replenishment, and GAC + GAC motor went to the warehouse slightly: according to our self built inventory system, the overall replenishment in November Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , and the enterprise’s inventory in the current month was + 9786 (compared with October). GAC + gac-e’an replenishment, the enterprise’s inventory in the current month was + 9923 / + 99 (compared with October), GAC + GAC motor went to the warehouse slightly, and the enterprise’s inventory was – 174 / – 411 (compared with October).
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect that with the launch of GAC motor + GAC e’an new model, a new round of product cycle will continue to be launched, and the cycle of Japanese models is strong, which is expected to continue to improve. We maintain Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) 2021-2023 parent net profit expectation of RMB 6.5/9/11.1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.9% / + 38.3% / + 23.0% respectively; The corresponding EPS from 2021 to 2023 is 0.63/0.87/1.07 yuan and PE is 27 / 19 / 16 times. For a long time, we still maintain the “buy” rating of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) .
Risk warning: Overseas epidemic control is lower than expected; The recovery of passenger car demand was lower than expected.
