Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238)
event:
The company released the production and sales report in November 2021: the sales volume in November totaled 224100 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.0% and a month on month increase of + 16.22%; From January to November, the cumulative sales volume was 1.19107 million, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 4.1%. In November, a total of 233900 vehicles were produced, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.16% and a month on month increase of + 21.43%; From January to November, 1.8702 million vehicles were produced, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 3.1%.
Key investment points:
In November, both production and sales increased month on month, higher than the industry level. The impact of chip shortage continued to weaken. In November, the company’s production and sales continued the growth momentum in October, with a total production of 233900 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 5.16% / + 21.43% respectively, and a total sales volume of 224100 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 3.0% / + 16.22% respectively, a record high, Both are higher than the industry level (the Automobile Association of China estimates that the sales volume of the automobile industry in November is – 10.8% / + 5.9% month on month respectively). The cumulative sales volume from January to November is 1.19107 million, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 4.1%.
The performance of new energy is brilliant, and the batch sales and retail of ai’an brand reach a new high. In November, the company sold 15097 independent new energy vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 103.4%. From January to November, the company sold 1060.42 million vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 97.6%. Among them, the brand of ai’an maintained a strong momentum, selling 15035 vehicles in a single month, with a year-on-year increase of + 109.1%, and retailing 14566 vehicles in a single month, with a year-on-year increase of + 123%, both reaching a record high, and completing the annual target of 100000 vehicles ahead of schedule. Aions and aiony, the main models of ai’an, have a strong performance, leading the market of compact pure electric cars and compact pure electric SUVs. Aionlx, the world’s first pure electric vehicle with a endurance of more than 1000km, is expected to be listed in January 2022, which will effectively solve the pain points of mileage anxiety and slow charging of pure electric vehicles and improve the competitiveness of the company’s products.
The hot sales of many models in Liangtian helped maintain the growth momentum. In November, guangben and Guangfeng sold 77700 / 85000 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 10.0% / + 9.8% respectively, Significantly improved compared with October (October was – 13.9% / – 15.3% on a year-on-year basis) and + 3.0% / + 39.3% on a month on month basis respectively. Many popular models in Liangtian continued to develop, including 25000 guangben accord series, 17900 Binzhi models, 16900 haoying series, 25300 Guangfeng Camry series, 22900 leiling series and 18000 willanda series. At the same time, Liangtian accelerated the launch of new products, and guangben is expected to usher in a new year Civic sister models intergra (style) and new Odyssey, Guangfeng medium-sized SUV VESA will be launched soon. The launch of new products will help to consolidate the market and speed up the development of new market segments.
Profit forecast and investment rating: maintain the company’s “buy” rating and be optimistic about the company’s new models + chips. Driven by the demand for inventory replenishment, the company’s sales volume and profit are expected to further improve. It is estimated that the company’s operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 75.5 billion yuan, 85.8 billion yuan and 94.3 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20%, 14% and 10% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 7.2 billion yuan, 9.6 billion yuan and 10.9 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS is 0.70 yuan, 0.93 yuan and 1.05 yuan respectively.
Risk tip: the mitigation speed of automobile chip shortage is lower than expected; The sales volume of new models was lower than expected.
