Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) (600104)
event:
The company released the production and sales report in November 2021: the sales volume in November totaled 601400 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 6.6% and a month on month increase of + 3.3%; From January to November, the cumulative sales volume was 4.8025 million, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 1.1%. In November, a total of 505400 vehicles were produced, with a year-on-year increase of – 8.2% and a month on month increase of + 5.8%; From January to November, 4.8028 million vehicles were produced, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 0.1%.
Key investment points:
Vehicle sales maintained a strong growth trend, with sales exceeding 600000 in November, and many brands reached a new high in the year. In November, the company sold 601400 complete vehicles, with a month on month ratio of – 6.6% / + 3.3% respectively; From January to November, the cumulative sales volume was 4.8025 million, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 1.1%. SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC GM, SAIC passenger cars, SAIC Maxus and other brands hit annual highs, of which SAIC Volkswagen sold 135000 vehicles in batches, a month on month increase of + 12.5%; SAIC GM sold 137000 vehicles in batches, a month on month increase of + 3.8%; SAIC sold 100100 passenger cars in batches, a month on month increase of + 0.1%; From January to November, the cumulative sales volume was nearly 700000, exceeding the annual sales volume in 2020; SAIC Maxus sold 24000 vehicles, up 40.7% month on month. We believe that with the continuous mitigation of the impact of chip shortage and driven by the demand for replenishment, the company’s sales volume is expected to be further improved.
New energy vehicles continued the trend of high growth, with cumulative sales from January to November + 155.5% year-on-year. In November, the company sold 82300 new energy models, with a month on month ratio of + 45.6% / + 6.9%, a record high. From January to November, 638000 new energy vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 155.5%, continuing to lead the industry. The annual sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 700000. The cumulative sales volume of SAIC passenger cars and new energy vehicles has reached 147000, of which the higher proportion is medium and high-end new energy vehicles such as mghsphev, mgzsev, erx5 and ei6. Driven by the strong “ID electric family”, SAIC Volkswagen sold nearly 12000 new energy models in a single month, with a year-on-year increase of + 205.5%. Since the ID series was listed, it has reached a new high, and now stands on the “new level” of 8000. It is expected to hit the “10000 mark” by the end of the year.
In November, 75000 vehicles were exported overseas, and Mg brand became the champion of overseas export single products. In November, the company sold 75000 vehicles overseas, and the cumulative sales from January to November reached 603000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 87.4%, ranking first in the overseas sales of Chinese auto enterprises. Mg brand became the “champion of overseas sales of China’s single brand”. From January to November, the cumulative overseas sales exceeded 310000 (including 245000 exported and 66000 produced overseas), of which 46000 new energy models were sold in the markets of Britain, France, Germany and other European developed countries, becoming the “leader” of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile in exploring the overseas market.
Profit forecast and investment rating predict that the company’s operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 821.1 billion yuan, 887.5 billion yuan and 948.8 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 8% and 7% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 28.6 billion yuan, 31.7 billion yuan and 35.6 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS is 2.45 yuan, 2.73 yuan and 3.05 yuan respectively. Maintain the company’s “overweight” rating.
The risk indicates that the shortage of automobile chips is not alleviated as expected; The sales volume of new models is lower than expected; Overseas export sales were lower than expected.
