Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) (000799)
Summary of this issue:
High end culture is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and the internal reference model goes out of self-confidence. In the development of Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , master Huang Yongyu is an indispensable element. He not only acts as a designer and creator, but also a symbolic representative connected with Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) . Internal reference was born under the aura of cultural celebrities and political dignitaries. After 17 years of brand precipitation, it has the gene of a high-end brand. Its product price is benchmarked to Maotai. Drunkards still maintain their high-end brand image no less than Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Guojiao 1573 in difficult times of development. The independent high-end brand image goes deep into the wine circle and is rooted in the hearts of some consumers. Through the implementation of the internal reference value seminar, the fourth largest high-end wine image has gradually been recognized by more consumers. The exploration of internal sales mode has been successful, and strategic cooperation has been reached with local large and excellent businesses outside the province, realizing the dual layout of platform providers and core terminals, and walking out of niutuan’s confidence. Under the big business system, it has strong anti risk ability, high stability in task completion, and provides more deterministic growth.
Drunkard products developed in multiple lines, and the contribution from outside the province was the main growth. Drunkard series are mainly red altar 18, purple altar and yellow altar in the province, and red altar 20, inheritance and transparent clothes outside the province. Multiple products are launched in different areas to jointly drive growth. At present, the proportion and scale advantage of core large single products are still not obvious. With the energy given by internal participation and the deep cultivation and construction of markets outside the province, the company is expected to accelerate the creation of 1-2 1 billion large single products and achieve a firm foothold in the national sub high-end market. On the basis of rapid investment promotion, the markets outside the province of drunkard series have gradually formed echelons. Henan, Shandong and Hebei are deep cultivation core markets, Guangdong, Anhui and Jiangsu are dynamic sales and repurchase key markets, and the rest are investment promotion development markets. There is a possibility of sustainability in channel development.
Future highlights: Cultivation of internal reference opinion leaders and nationalization of alcoholics. After three years of development, the company has completed all basic coverage in the province, but the coverage varies greatly outside the province according to different market development conditions. Compared with other national sub high-end brands, the national layout of drunkards is still in the primary stage. The channel layout of internal reference in the province is saturated, and the agency qualification is scarce. The new channels are mainly in the form of exclusive stores. At present, the quota system is adopted for dealers to control the stability of price. From the display of internal ginseng exclusive stores, there are few personalized products of internal ginseng. In the future, it can be built through diversified IP, strengthen the development of cultural and creative products, publicize the core of internal ginseng cultural wine, and provide incremental supplement for the province. In the drunkard series, due to the large investment in channel expenses and more investment in tasting wine, the product cost is diluted, resulting in more upside down prices and crowded terminal transaction prices, which does not reflect the stepped layout of retail prices. After the core products reach a certain scale in the future, the company can further sort out the product prices by strengthening the fine cost control, On the other hand, enhance the channel profit space and improve the enthusiasm of dealers and agents. The company’s national echelon market has been preliminarily established. In the future, according to the different development conditions of each market, with the help of the big business platform, the company will turn from simple investment growth to high-quality deep cultivation.
Investment advice: keep calm in self-confidence, follow the trend and climb the peak. In the face of the breakthrough development achieved in the past three years, the management of the company proposed to keep calm, improve the shortcomings in development, firm the development direction with nine self-confident attitudes and continue to climb the peak. 2022 has a good start. The payment period is from December to the Spring Festival, and the payment collection period is close to 2 months. We believe that with sufficient payment collection time and special reward for good start payment collection, the company’s good start will be achieved smoothly, laying a deterministic foundation for the realization of the annual goal. We expect EPS from 2021 to 2023 to be 3.04, 4.61 and 6.48 yuan respectively, corresponding to 79 / 52 / 37 times of the closing price (241.39 yuan / share) on December 8, 2021, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Stock price catalyst: the expansion of the secondary high-end market and the acceleration of nationalization
Risk factors: macroeconomic uncertainty risk; Market development is less than expected risk; Industry competition intensifies risk
