Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) (000625)
Key investment points
Key points of announcement: Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) in November, the output was 220452, with a year-on-year increase of - 7.00% and a month on month increase of + 10.19%; 188030 vehicles were wholesale, with a year-on-year increase of -14.35% and a month on month increase of -7.05%. Changan autonomous (Chongqing Changan + Hefei Changan) produced 107664 vehicles, with a year-on-year growth of - 9.10%, a month on month growth of + 4.27%, and sold 90900 vehicles, with a year-on-year growth of - 18.25%, a month on month growth of - 9.30%; Changan Ford produced 34323 vehicles, with a year-on-year growth of + 6.60%, a month on month growth of + 9.15%, and sold 28943 vehicles, with a year-on-year growth of + 0.72%, a month on month growth of - 2.22%.
In November, the impact of the overall chip shortage in Chang'an weakened, and the output increased month on month. 1) Changan's independent production batch was worse than the industry on the same month on month basis. Industry comparison, In November, the output of narrow passenger cars reached 2.229 million (YoY - 2.1%, mom + 13.9%), and the wholesale sales volume reached 2.15 million (year-on-year - 5.1%, month on month + 8.9%). The performance of Changan autonomous November production batch was worse than that of the industry. From January to November 2021, the industry produced 18.486 million vehicles, year-on-year + 7.7%; the cumulative wholesale sales volume was 18.728 million vehicles, year-on-year + 7.2%. From January to November, Changan autonomous produced 1.0601 million vehicles, year-on-year + 23.96%; the cumulative wholesale sales volume was 1.0114 million vehicles, year-on-year + 27.56%. In terms of key models, the sales volume of Changan Yate motor in November was 91% 51 vehicles, year-on-year -56.73%, month on month -30.21%; In November, the sales volume of cs75 was 20654, with a year-on-year increase of - 36.95% and a month on month increase of + 0.56%; Uni-t11 sold 6832 vehicles in January, with a year-on-year increase of -32.09% and a month on month increase of -7.20%. 2) The year-on-year performance of Changan Ford production batch is better than that of the industry, and the month on month performance is worse than that of the industry. The shortage of chips improved, and the output of Changan Ford achieved positive growth month on month in November. Changan Ford produced 277100 vehicles from January to November, a year-on-year increase of + 36.58%; The cumulative sales volume was 267800 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 20.54%. Among the key models, Flores performed well, with 5594 vehicles sold in November, with a month on month ratio of + 120.93% / + 4.15% respectively. 3) A heavy new car is coming on the market. Uni-kidd hybrid version & sports coupe uni-v will be launched soon, which is expected to boost the overall sales of Chang'an.
Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) overall Replenishment: according to our self built inventory system, In November, the overall inventory of Chang'an enterprises was + 32422 vehicles (compared with October), and the inventory of Chang'an independent enterprises was + 16764 vehicles (compared with October), of which Auchan X5 / cs55 / escape was the most replenished vehicle, with a replenishment of + 5258 / + 3055 / + 2556 vehicles respectively (compared with October); the inventory of Chang'an Ford enterprises was + 5380 vehicles in the same month (compared with October), among them, Lincoln adventurer / Explorer has more vehicles replenished, with + 1330 / + 708 vehicles replenished respectively (compared with October).
Profit forecast and investment rating: we maintain Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) the forecast of operating revenue of RMB 106214 / 137866 / 173574 billion from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of + 25.6% / + 29.8% / + 25.9%, corresponding to the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 4547 / 5946 / 7017 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 36.8% / + 30.8% / + 18.0%, EPS of RMB 0.60/0.78/0.92, and corresponding PE valuation of 29 / 23 / 19 times. Considering that Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) will usher in a new round of improvement in future performance, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: epidemic control is lower than expected; The recovery of passenger car demand was lower than expected.
