Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) (603786)
Shouzheng is amazing, new customers, new products and new fields. Looking back on the company’s ten-year development, it is one of the few parts enterprises in the industry that can achieve ten fold growth in ten years. At the same time, the company has 168 million controllers on hand and 113 projects under research. To sum up, several major changes will support the matrix development in the next few years:
1. New breakthroughs in old products: the mature product lamp controller broke through Japanese customers in the second quarter of this year, obtained Nissan Infiniti and Suzuki global lamp control projects, and has successfully expanded European, American and Japanese customers.
2. The new products are expected to be platform based, multi scenario applications and huge market space: five new AGS projects are designated to support Ford, Weilai, Chang’an and other customers. However, the company is not satisfied with the existing research and development of a single AGS. It applies its underlying technical principles to realize the platform of AGS. In the future, all precision position control modules in the vehicle can be adapted and can be applied to various scenarios such as thermal management, micro motor, precision gear, solenoid valve, etc. the value of each module of passenger car is about 200-400 yuan. With the trend of intelligence, There are 20-30 small ECUs or intelligent execution modules for medium and low-end vehicles, and 70-80 for high-end vehicles, which has a huge market space.
3. New field, breakthrough in difficult chassis controller: up to now, the company has obtained fixed points for chassis domain controller projects of Byd Company Limited(002594) several models. In addition, the company has also obtained fixed points for chassis controller products such as Xiaopeng, Byd Company Limited(002594) , ideal models, DCC (adaptive suspension controller), ASC (air suspension controller), etc. the company is surprisingly upright and achieves cross domain breakthrough.
General trend of Automotive ECU development – platform products help realize global layout. With intelligence, what kind of development trend will automobile electronics have? We take the most streamlined framework as the guiding ideology and summarize: 1. Non standardized products – represented by intelligent cockpit and intelligent driving; 2. Standardized products – represented by the development of chassis and body electronics. Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) all products are based on body and chassis electronics, which is expected to realize platform and standardization, form scale effect and realize global layout. The scenery should be long, and the 100 billion market is waiting for China’s automotive electronics to break through step by step.
Investment suggestion: from last year’s epidemic to this year’s chip impact, the automobile industry has encountered black swans for two consecutive years. At the same time, China’s automobile industry has also entered a mature period. From 2018 to 2020, the production and sales have declined, and the net profit of A-share automobile related listed companies has decreased from about 145 billion in 2018 to 88 billion in 2020. But Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) still increased steadily in the creeping period. Looking back at the development in the previous decade, the revenue and profit CAGR were more than 27%, far exceeding the industry average. The track where Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) is located is excellent and the company is strong. It is a scarce automotive electronic target in China. Due to the serious impact of core shortage this year, we predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 / 22 will be 420 / 830 million, corresponding to 38 times PE next year, and continue to maintain the recommendation.
Risk tip: the chip affects the automobile output, the sales volume is lower than expected, and the batch production of new projects lags behind.
