Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) (300748)
Event: Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) announced that the company received the fixed point notice from the vehicle business headquarters of Nippon Power Co., Ltd. on December 4, and the company became its supplier of rare earth permanent magnet materials.
Japan's power industry - an old overseas motor manufacturer, plans to have more than 10 million on-board drive motors in 2030. As an old overseas comprehensive motor manufacturer, Nippon power now has 300 group enterprises, mainly including "precision small motor", "automobile motor" and "home appliance / industrial motor". In the future, it will mainly focus on the fields of "automobile motor" and "home appliance / industrial motor". In 2019, Japan's power output will produce a motor system - "e-axis", which integrates motor, inverter and reducer. "E-axis" system has significant advantages in integrated design, compactness and lightness. While reducing the R & D time of downstream new energy vehicle manufacturers, it can effectively improve the power of electric vehicles and reduce power consumption. According to the website of electronic enthusiasts, it has been applied to a variety of new energy models such as GAC Fengtian ia5, Weilai hycan007, Geely geometry C and Honda ea6. According to the disclosure of nikkei.com, in April 2019, Japan's power industry took the lead in producing drive motor "e-axis" all over the world. By the end of September 21, it had sold more than 200000 sets in China, with the goal of reaching 10 million sets by 2030. According to the calculation that a single motor needs 3kg magnetic material blank, the demand for magnetic materials by Japan's power industry will reach 30000 tons.
The company actively expands new energy vehicle customers, and the proportion of revenue continues to increase. The company is positioned as a supplier of high-end magnetic materials. The layout of new energy vehicles continues to deepen, and the proportion of revenue has increased from 13.48% in 2020 to 22.58% in the first three quarters of 21 years. At present, the company has successfully entered the supply system of Tesla, GM, China Volkswagen MEB platform, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Weilai, ideal and other new energy vehicle enterprises. This time, the company has been designated by Japan power industry to provide it with high-performance rare earth permanent magnet products, which also shows that the company's products have been recognized by the international first-line motor brand.
The company's production capacity has entered a rapid volume period. At present, the company's Sintered Nd-Fe-B magnetic blank production capacity reaches 15000 tons, and the 8000 ton project of Baotou base is expected to be put into operation by the end of this year, and the production capacity will reach 23000 tons in 2022. In addition, the company invests in the construction of a project with an annual output of 3000 tons of high-end magnetic materials and 100 million sets / set of components in Ningbo. It is expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2023, further improve the industrial chain layout, and the company's production capacity will be increased to 40000 tons in, The company's business scale will be further expanded and its leading advantages in product quality and production cost will be strengthened. In the future, the release of production capacity will be superimposed on the high prospect of the industry, the product volume and price will rise together, and the performance will enter the accelerated release period.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: we adjusted the rough production assumptions of Nd-Fe-B magnetic materials in 2021, 2022 and 2023 to 14500, 19000 and 23000 tons respectively. Considering the improvement of profitability brought by the optimization of the company's product structure, The net profits of the company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 were raised to 496, 699 and 862 million yuan respectively (the previous values were 452, 642 and 842 million yuan respectively). As of December 6, 2021, the market value was 33.9 billion yuan, corresponding to 68 / 49 / 39x PE in 2021-2023, maintaining the "buy" rating of the company.
Risk warning events: price fluctuation of main products, raw material cost fluctuation, industrial policy change, project progress is less than expected, demand measurement deviation, and the risk of lag in the use of public information in the research report.
