Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238)
Core view
It is expected that the mitigation of guangben chip shortage and the listing of new energy vehicles will promote the improvement of sales month on month. Guangben sold 77700 vehicles in November, a year-on-year decrease of 10.0% and a month on month increase of 3.0%. In the previous November, it sold 701900 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%. According to the passenger Federation, in November, the wholesale sales of narrow passenger cars fell by 5% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate of guangben's wholesale sales was lower than the industry average. In November, 25049 accord series, 17875 Binzhi series and 16919 haoying series were sold. In terms of new cars, the new Odyssey hybrid version and GAC Honda model will be launched. GAC Honda will introduce the intelligent pure electric platform e: narchitecture. The first model e: NP1 will be launched in 2022. It is expected that five new cars will be launched in the pure electric field in the next five years. Guangben will accelerate the layout of the new energy industry to improve its competitiveness. It is expected that with the marginal alleviation of chip shortage, The listing of new energy vehicles will promote the month on month improvement of guangben's sales.
Guangfeng's sales volume increased significantly month on month, and new cars such as Weisa, fenglanda and bz4x are expected to lead the sales growth. Guangfeng sold 85000 vehicles in November, with a year-on-year increase of 9.8% and a month on month increase of 39.3%. In the previous November, the cumulative sales volume was 729500 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. The sales growth in November far exceeded the industry average. In November, the monthly sales of Guangfeng Camry series were 25341, that of willanda series was 18043, and that of hanlanda series was 10385. The flagship MPV Saina was launched at the end of October to promote sales; In November, the 2022 model of weilanda will be launched. In the future, Guangfeng will launch Weisa, fenglanda and other new cars, of which Weisa will provide fuel and hybrid versions. Guangfeng will also introduce the first model bz4x of BZ pure electric exclusive series. Guangfeng will provide more diversified new products in the field of pure electricity and hybrid, and the new car is expected to lead the sales growth.
GAC's independent sales volume is flat month on month, and ai'an is expected to open up sales space. GAC sold 35600 vehicles in November, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6% and a month on month increase of 0.7%. From January to November, it sold 292100 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, including 10052 vehicles sold by Yingbao. In terms of new energy vehicles, gac-e'an sold 15000 vehicles in November, with a year-on-year increase of 109.1% and a month on month increase of 24.4%; From January to November, 105700 vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 102.3%. The sales volume has achieved leapfrog growth. Ai'an lxplus is expected to be listed in early 2022. In November, AIAN announced to accelerate the mixed reform, promote the core competitiveness and independent operation ability by introducing strategic investors, boost the expansion and strength of new energy business, and seek listing opportunities at the right time. It is expected that the comprehensive strength of GAC AIAN will continue to improve, which is expected to open up the space for upward sales.
Financial forecast and investment suggestions: EPS is expected to be 0.72, 1.00 and 1.15 yuan respectively from 2021 to 2023. The chip will affect the profit. According to the 22-year PE valuation and referring to the valuation of comparable companies, the company will be given 24 times PE in 2022, the target price is 24 yuan, and the buy rating will be maintained.
Risk tip: the sales volume of GAC passenger cars, Guangfeng, guangben and guangfeike is lower than the expected risk, and the demand of passenger car industry is lower than the expected risk.
