Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) (600219)
Key investment points
With strategic vision, R & D takes the lead, and high-end products continue to make breakthroughs
Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) is a leading enterprise in the whole industrial chain layout of power / alumina electrolytic aluminum aluminum processing. The company has a forward-looking strategic layout in tank material, aviation plate, automobile plate, battery foil, Indonesian alumina project and so on. Adhering to the development strategy of "innovation driven, high-end manufacturing and intensive processing", the company focuses on high-end aluminum manufacturing, with the highest number and proportion of R & D personnel in the industry. It has been widely recognized by downstream high-end customers in the direction of automobile plate, aviation plate, tank material and high-performance aluminum foil, and has become Crrc Corporation Limited(601766) , COMAC, Boeing, BMW GM and many other world-class enterprise suppliers are the first aluminum plate manufacturer of four doors and two covers of passenger cars in China.
Electrolytic aluminum is the most beneficial variety of carbon peak, and is optimistic about the long-term trend of electrolytic aluminum
Carbon peaking and carbon neutralization are global deterministic development trends. As the world's largest carbon emitter, China's carbon peaking in 2030 is a very urgent goal. At present, "dual control of energy consumption" is a major policy focus. Electrolytic aluminum, as the industry with the lowest added value of kwh, is most limited in dual control of energy consumption. Therefore, from the perspective of electrolytic aluminum supply side, limited capacity growth, lack of power in production capacity and postponement of capacity under construction will be the themes of the aluminum industry. The long-term supply increment comes from the sea of renewable aluminum and electrolytic aluminum production capacity, but it is far from hydrolyzing the near thirst. The demand side is still growing at an annual growth rate of 3-4%, which is optimistic about the long-term trend of electrolytic aluminum.
In the new energy tide, with the superposition of triple high growth factors, China's demand for automotive aluminum plate is expected to grow by more than 22%
The global carbon neutralization policy puts forward stricter requirements for vehicle emissions. The requirements for endurance of new energy vehicles are a good opportunity to further improve the penetration of automotive aluminum materials. New energy vehicles are the direction with the highest growth rate of automotive aluminum. China is the country with the highest growth rate of new energy vehicles. Automotive aluminum plate is the species with the highest growth rate among automotive aluminum materials. The superposition of triple high growth rates drives the average annual growth rate of automotive aluminum plate in China to reach more than 22%. The sales of auto aluminum plates need strict certification of auto enterprises. The company is the only Chinese enterprise in China to realize mass production of auto plates. In addition, nobelis and Japan Shengang can supply auto aluminum plates. The total production capacity of these three enterprises is 500000 tons, and there are only Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) 200000 tons of projects under construction in the future, which can not meet the demand of rapid growth of the industry, The company's products are expected to continue to be in short supply.
High end products are about to enter a large-scale period, and the proportion of profit contribution has increased significantly
The company's core high-end products include automobile plate, aviation plate and battery foil: the demand of automobile plate industry is growing rapidly. The existing 200000 ton production line is in short supply, and the construction of new 200000 ton production capacity is being actively promoted; Aviation board will be certified by COMAC and other key enterprises in large quantities; The capacity of 21000 tons of battery foil has been completed and is expected to reach the capacity in 2022. It is expected that the proportion of sales volume of core high-end products will increase from 6% in 2020 to 26% in 2023, and the proportion of gross profit will increase from 13% in 2020 to 39% in 2023.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the total operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 29.909 billion yuan, 33.846 billion yuan and 41.788 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 34.13%, 13.16% and 23.47%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.458 billion yuan, 4.273 billion yuan and 5.582 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 68.72%, 23.56% and 30.64%. Core products (aviation board, automobile board and battery foil) the net profit attributable to parent company in 2022 will rise to RMB 1.114 billion, giving a valuation of 26 times the P / E ratio of core products in 2022, with a market value of RMB 29 billion. The net profit attributable to parent company of non core products in 2022 will be RMB 3.159 billion, with a reasonable market value of RMB 34.7 billion based on 11 times the P / E ratio of comparable companies. The total reasonable market value of the two sectors is RMB 63.7 billion, an increase of 21% compared with the current market value For the first time, a "buy" rating is given.
Risk tips: 1. The risk of large-scale resumption of production of limited capacity in electrolytic aluminum industry; 2. Indonesia's mining policy fluctuation risk; 3. Risk that the replacement progress of automobile aluminum plate is less than expected; 4. The risk of intensified industry competition.
