Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) (002568)
Event: the company issued a price increase announcement. Based on the rising costs of raw and auxiliary materials, packaging materials, labor, transportation and energy, as well as the rising costs caused by the company's optimized and upgraded products, the company decided to adjust the ex factory prices of various series of products. The price increases of main products ranged from 4% to 10%. The new prices will be implemented according to the product price adjustment notice from December 25, 2021. According to the channel research, it is expected that the subsequent terminal price will follow the fine adjustment.
Stimulating channel replenishment is expected to achieve high growth in the fourth quarter. As of the first three quarters of this year, the company's revenue increased by 45% year-on-year, of which the pre prepared cocktails still maintained rapid growth under the high base last year. Under the background of weak overall demand in the consumer industry this year, they performed well compared with many other categories. According to the channel tracking, from October to November, the company maintained a high growth rate of pre prepared cocktails, continued to be drunk and strong, distributed goods steadily, and the channel inventory level was controllable. The fourth quarter is the peak season of the company's business, mainly due to the strong consumer demand during holidays such as Christmas and new year's day, as well as more promotional activities, and the company will limit the products in the market season, such as the introduction of limited hot red wine flavor in winter. It is expected that the price increase will stimulate dealers' purchase enthusiasm, accelerate the purchase in advance, and the company's revenue is expected to maintain a high growth in the fourth quarter.
Cover the cost pressure and improve the certainty of next year's performance. Packaging materials account for a high proportion in the company's cost structure. At present, the proportion of bottle and can products is about 2:8. In 21q3, the price index of China's glass products increased by 3PCT on average year-on-year, the market price of aluminum ingots increased by 44% on average year-on-year, and the price of corrugated paper increased by 13% on average year-on-year. The price increase of the company is large, which is expected to better cover the rise of costs, help to improve profits and encourage the achievement of excess performance in the first year.
It is proposed to promote equity incentive, bind the interests of core personnel and give steady growth expectations. Previously, the company launched an equity incentive plan, which plans to grant 3 million shares, including 227 core managers, core technicians and key business personnel, with an average of 13200 shares / person. The performance assessment objective is based on the revenue in 2021, the revenue growth rate in 2022 / 2023 / 2024 is not less than 25% / 54% / 85%, and the three-year revenue CAGR is 22%. The incentive range is wide and the target value is stable, which is mainly used to bind the interests of middle and senior managers. Recently, the company's sales team has injected fresh blood, and the relevant personnel have rich marketing experience. We believe that there is room for the growth of the incentive target. With the steady progress of channel sinking and the impact of price increase, the actual growth next year is expected to exceed the growth target.
Continue to operate young people in depth, deeply cultivate alcoholic drinks, have a clear strategy and optimistic long-term space. The company is a rare successful enterprise focusing on young consumer groups. In recent years, it has continued to improve the product matrix, meet the diversified needs of consumers and enhance the consumption frequency and stickiness. Among them, Weijiu has been successful with accurate consumption scene positioning, high-precision wine products are strong and cool, and the distribution of sparkling wine products in refreshing outlets has been steadily promoted. At the same time, the company is keen to target the young women's fali plum wine track in the first and second tier cities. The products are fully tested before listing and look forward to the follow-up market effect. In addition, the production capacity of Sichuan whisky will not only reserve the base liquor for the future launch of high-end whisky pre blending, but also lay the foundation for the long-term launch of independent brand whisky products. The company has a clear strategy of deep cultivation of alcoholic drinks, optimistic prospects and long-term growth.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company's EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.07, 1.47 and 1.96 yuan respectively, excluding equity incentive expenses, they will be 1.07, 1.50 and 1.97 yuan respectively, and the six-month target price will be 74.77 yuan (excluding incentive expenses), corresponding to 50 times PE in 2022, maintaining the "buy-b" rating.
Risk tip: low alcohol liquor market expands, and potential strong competitors join in to intensify the risk of competition; Category penetration may have a ceiling.
