Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) (002624)
Magic tower has repeatedly tested that the quality of the game has been continuously improved, and the marketing strategy has changed to reduce costs and improve efficiency. At the end of the four rounds of testing, “magic tower” has made large-scale improvements in art performance, action playing method, plot flow, krypton gold point and other aspects, basically meeting the diverse needs of players and significantly improving its reputation. Benchmarking the two-dimensional phenomenal game “original God” and “magic tower” show unique advantages in air combat system, social attributes and deep PVP playing methods, forming differentiated competition. Magic tower has increased its investment and operation in the vertical channel end, comprehensively touched the potential players through the pan secondary platform station B, taptap community operation and MCN channel promotion, and increased the popularity of the game at a lower cost.
The final measurement of magic tower is hot. The Mau in the first month is expected to reach 10 million, and the running water is expected to reach 600-1 billion yuan. “Magic tower” will be open for public beta on December 16, 2021. As of 21:00 on December 8, The number of bookings on the official website of magic tower has exceeded 15.17 million (compared with 12 million in the whole network before the launch of the company’s previous generation main MMO, dream new killing immortal); taptap has 1.548 million bookings and 28000 comments; station B has more than 981000 bookings and 48000 comments. Referring to the current number of bookings, we estimate that the Mau of magic tower in the first month is about 10 million. The benchmark is dream new killing immortal and original God , magic tower is superior in terms of screen effects and depth of play, and IP influence and technical power are slightly insufficient. We expect that the initial performance of magic tower will be between dream new killing immortal and original God, with a flow of about 600-1 billion RMB in the first month, which is expected to continue to release performance in 22 years.
High R & D investment tamps the company’s basic market, and the main products enter the payback period. The company’s A-share game business is leading, with more than 20 independent development teams. The proportion of R & D expenses and R & D personnel is higher than that in the same industry. The profound technical accumulation is expected to support the continuous iteration and product line R & D after the launch of magic tower. Within five months after the launch of “dream new kill immortal”, the IOS best seller ranked 17th on average, which is expected to continue to contribute to the long-term performance increment. The company’s classic MMO games ” Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) ” and “new Xiaoao Jianghu” maintain the popularity and maintain the basic market of running water.
The mobile game industry has entered a multi-directional transformation period and Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) complies with the industry trend. The company’s traditional “multi IP, short cycle” strategy has entered the late stage of development, focusing on the high-quality new tour “magic tower”. Through the magic tower, it is expected to achieve category breakthrough and shape a new growth curve. The science fiction waste land theme of magic tower is easy to be accepted by European and American players with high payment ability, and has broad prospects for going to sea. At present, the distribution of game edition numbers is suspended. At the end of 21, there are few heavyweight new products on the market. There are no giants in MMO + open world + secondary category, and the market competition is weak. Magic tower is at the advantageous node of launching.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: considering that the stock of games such as “old legend” in 21 years is less than expected, the increase of game purchase price pushes up the marketing rate, and the rapid and large-scale iteration of magic tower has brought high R & D rate. We lowered the net profit forecast for the period from 21 to 23 to RMB 1.326/21.13/2.577 billion (compared with the last forecast of – 18.0% / – 1.7% / – 1.5%), and the current price corresponds to pe31 / 19 / 16x. At the same time, considering that the company has sufficient reserves of traditional advantageous games and creative new products, the dominant position of self-research is expected to be consolidated. Open the world with high quality and the new tour “magic tower” with two dimensions It is expected to bring flexibility to the performance in 22 years. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: industry growth slows down; Brain drain; The performance of stock mobile games is less than expected; Policy change risk; Impairment of film and television business.
