Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.Ltd(002284) (002284)
As the leader of automobile mechanical braking system, the capital expenditure cycle has passed, and the turning point of high-level profit has emerged, which fully benefits from the independent rise and global industrial transfer
The company is one of the few first-class parts suppliers specializing in R & D and production of complete automobile braking system in China. Its main business is basic brake, automobile electronic control system and line control system. In 2014, the company plans to build a 120000 ton casting plant. The project has been basically completed. We expect that full production will bring the company basic brake assembly revenue with an annual output value of about 6 billion. In 2020, the company's basic brake revenue will be 2.24 billion yuan, accounting for about 11% of the market. At present, the competition pattern of basic brakes is scattered, The company's customers of basic braking products have expanded to all joint ventures and mainstream independent brands. The end of the early large-scale capital expenditure cycle and the downward superposition of industry cycles lead to the inflection point of high-level profits of the company. In the future, with the rise of independent brands and the global industrial transfer of basic manufacturing, the company is expected to achieve import substitution and become a global leading enterprise in basic braking.
"Lack of core" accelerates the domestic substitution of electronic braking products, and the company ushers in a new opportunity for the development of automotive electronic business
The company began to develop ABS in 1998, successfully developed it in 2000 and industrialized it in 2004. Based on ABS, continue to extend the automotive electronic control system upward. The automotive electronic products mass produced and designated by the company are mainly ABS, EPB, ESC IBS (two box) and others, the value of single vehicle has greatly increased compared with the basic brake. At the same time, the company continues to increase R & D investment, and IBS (one box) under research is expected to achieve mass production in the future. "Core shortage" is Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.Ltd(002284) It provides an opportunity to realize domestic substitution in the field of automotive electronics. At present, the company's automotive electronics products have entered the supply chain of core independent brands such as great wall, Geely, Chang'an and FAW. In the future, with the continuous improvement of product penetration, the company is expected to become the "Bosch" in China's braking field.
Layout ADAS and hub motor to develop market increment space
The company has laid out intelligent vehicles, built an unmanned industrial chain of intelligent vehicle environment perception + active safety control + Mobile Internet, and developed 77GHz millimeter wave radar, Vision system (including controller). The company has the ability to provide a full set of ADAS system solutions. In the future, it is expected to accelerate the rapid penetration of electronic braking products under the traction of ADAS solutions. Hub motor is a forward-looking, leading and exploratory leading technology and an important basic technology for the future product technology upgrading of new energy vehicles and promoting industrial development, Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.Ltd(002284) It has the comprehensive development ability of hub motor from unit to whole system. Subsequently, with the rapid volume of new energy market, the commercialization process of hub motor is expected to speed up.
Investment advice
It is estimated that the company will achieve revenue of RMB 3.45/4.19/5.47 billion and net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 0.70/1.22/199 billion from 2021 to 2023. The current market value corresponds to 101 / 58 / 35 times of PE from 2021 to 2023. With the continuous improvement of the company's basic brake capacity utilization and the continuous volume of automotive electronic products, the performance is expected to return to the historical high level. As a leading company in China's brake industry, it is expected to enjoy a valuation premium, cover it for the first time and give a "recommended" rating.
Risk statement
Raw material price fluctuations lead to low gross profit margin, less than expected new product expansion, exchange rate risk, etc.
