Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) (601298)
Northern comprehensive port service provider: Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) Co., Ltd. is a port operation platform under Qingdao SASAC. After Shandong Port Integration in 2019, the actual controller is Shandong SASAC. Excellent natural conditions one belt, one road area and the other, the company is the important bridgehead of the “one belt and one road” intersection. Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) the goods are mainly containers, and there are many kinds of goods such as dry bulk and liquid bulk. In the first half of 2021, Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) port cargo throughput ranked the fourth in China’s coastal ports, container throughput remained the fifth in China’s coastal ports, foreign trade throughput remained the second in China’s coastal ports and the first in northern ports.
The profit of the container transportation industry chain is transmitted, and the port is expected to enter the price increase cycle: on December 3, Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company Limited(601018) issued the notice on the publicity of the list of foreign trade import and export container port charges, The list of foreign trade import and export container port charges of Ningbo Zhoushan port (version 202111) was published, which is planned to be implemented from January 1, 2022. This price adjustment is the first price increase announcement of China’s container port under the high prosperity of container transportation in recent two years. It is expected that Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company Limited(601018) The price adjustment is only the beginning, and the whole port rate is expected to enter the price increase cycle. The diffusion of shipping boom is the fundamental reason to support the rise in port prices. China’s port fee rate itself is lower than that of the world, and the increase rate is very small compared with the increase of foreign trade container transportation price. Due to the obvious growth of global container transportation demand, especially the significant growth of cargo volume from China to Europe and the United States, as an important logistics node, the operation volume of ports has increased significantly; On the other hand, in the context of the global epidemic, with the recovery of the epidemic and the increase of exports, the port, as a gateway, has great pressure on epidemic prevention and quarantine, container stacking port, port operation rate has declined, the corresponding expenditure has also increased, and the cost side has increased. Therefore, whether from the perspective of supply and demand or cost addition, the rise of port charges is supportive. deep level
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: it is estimated that this Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company Limited(601018) price adjustment is only the prelude to the industry. As the container business accounts for more than 50%, it is expected to benefit from the growth of container throughput and the recovery of rates. It is estimated that the operating revenue in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be RMB 14.844/16.07/18.086 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 12.29% / 10.53% / 10.23%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 4.547/53.30/6.256 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 18.35% / 17.22% / 17.37%; The corresponding PE is 8.51/7.27/6.21 times respectively, giving a “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the growth rate of Global trade has declined, the port fee reduction policy has been issued, and the return on reinvestment has declined.
