Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (601636)
The demand toughness of the industry still exists, the supply side may shrink, and the price is expected to remain at a good level. With the marginal improvement of real estate financing and the continuous release of "guaranteed delivery" demand, the inventory / price of the glass industry has changed positively. According to Zhuo Chuang information data, On December 9, the total inventory of production enterprises in key monitoring provinces was 33.12 million weight boxes (down 9.5% from last week), which has decreased for four consecutive weeks in the "off-season"; the national spot price of glass reached 2180 yuan / ton, up 4.4% from the phased low of 2089 yuan / ton on November 29. Looking forward to 2022, the toughness of the demand side still exists. According to the prediction of China Thailand real estate group, the completion growth rate may show a trend in 2022 With the trend of "high in front and low in back", the completed area in the whole year increased by 3.8% year-on-year. On the supply side, considering the current high capacity utilization rate of the industry, the subsequent new capacity is limited. In addition, according to the data of China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) and Industrial Glass Association, we calculate that the production capacity of production lines with kiln age within 5 years / 5-8 years / 8-10 years / more is 43.6% / 27.9% / 14.1% / 14.5% respectively. Considering that the glass cold repair cycle is usually 8-10 years, the cold repair of the old production line may lead to supply contraction in 2022. Under the condition that the demand toughness still exists / supply may shrink in 2022, we judge that the glass price is expected to remain at a good level.
The production expansion of photovoltaic glass has made steady progress, with obvious competitive advantages, and is expected to create a second growth curve. In 2020, the company officially laid out the photovoltaic glass industry and planned to convert the production capacity of 2500t / D ultra white floating photovoltaic glass. We expect to complete the conversion before the end of 2021. At present, the company still has five 1200t / D calendering production lines under construction. Affected by the dual control of energy consumption, we expect that 1 / 4 production lines will be put into operation respectively by the end of 22h1 / 22. After all production, the company has a total capacity of 8500d / T photovoltaic glass, and the capacity scale will rank among the forefront of the industry. The company has obvious advantages. On the one hand, the company actively distributes silica sand ore, which can ensure the stable supply of raw materials / reduce procurement costs; On the other hand, in addition to changing production lines, the company mostly has 1200t / d large kilns. With the exertion of scale effect, the company's ton cost is expected to remain at the level of first-line manufacturers. In addition, the company tries to apply ultra white float glass to component panels. If large-scale application is realized, the competitiveness is expected to be further enhanced. We expect that the company's photovoltaic glass revenue will account for more than 20% / 40% in 2022 / 2023, which is expected to become the second growth curve.
New categories are expanding rapidly, and the growth of emerging businesses is expected to accelerate. In addition to architectural glass / photovoltaic glass, the company actively distributes emerging fields such as energy-saving glass / electronic glass / medicinal glass. In terms of energy-saving glass, we expect that Hunan energy saving phase II project is expected to be put into operation before the end of the year, with an additional annual production capacity of 5 million square meters of coated glass and 500000 square meters of insulating glass. In terms of electronic glass, the company's high aluminum electronic glass production line has been put into commercial operation for 20 years. With the active expansion of downstream channels, it is expected to gradually increase the volume. In terms of medicinal glass, the company successfully ignited the 25t / D (one kiln and two lines) neutral borosilicate medicinal glass plain tube production line in Chenzhou, Hunan. With the improvement of product yield, the medicinal glass business is expected to further contribute to the increment.
Investment suggestion: we slightly reduced the net profit attributable to the parent company from 21 to 23 years to RMB 4.50/50.1/6.24 billion (original RMB 5.06/58.9/6.89 billion). Mainly considering the decline of glass price, we slightly reduced the average price assumption of float glass. The adjusted profit forecast corresponds to the current share price PE of 11.3/10.2/8.2 times. Considering the long-term growth of the company, we maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials has risen sharply; The new production capacity is less than expected; The expansion of new products was less than expected.
