Zhende Medical Co.Ltd(603301) (603301)
With the performance elasticity brought by epidemic resistant varieties gradually calming down, the high base effect is expected to be mainly reflected in 21 years. It is expected that the growth disturbance brought by the follow-up epidemic performance may weaken. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 3.863 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.41%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 483 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 77.00%, and a net profit not attributable to the parent of 420 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 79.77%. In Q3, the company realized an operating revenue of 951 million yuan / – 77.88%; Net profit attributable to parent company: 104 million yuan / – 90.59%; Deduct 81.55 million yuan / – 92.54% of the net profit not attributable to the parent company. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company’s operating revenue decreased significantly, mainly due to the high base effect caused by the substantial increase in the sales of epidemic prevention protective articles affected by the epidemic in the same period last year; The main reasons why the decline of profit side is greater than that of revenue side are as follows: 1) the return of the price of epidemic prevention protective articles in the first three quarters of 2021 led to the decline of the company’s gross profit margin; 2) In the first three quarters of 2021, the global freight capacity was in short supply, resulting in the increase of shipping cost of the company’s overseas business and the delayed delivery of some orders, which affected the company’s operating profit.
After the outbreak, the comprehensive upgrading of protective measures + the improvement of penetration rate drive the improvement of the scene bearing of China’s sensitive control city. Since the global covid-19 outbreak in 2020, with the change of comprehensive protection concept and the improvement of protection awareness, the market demand for sensing and control protection products has increased significantly. Previously, China’s surgical sensing and control products were still mainly reusable products. According to the data disclosed in the Research Report on market segmentation demand and development opportunities of China’s surgical sensing and control products industry from 2021 to 2026 released by xinsijie Industrial Research Center, the number of hospitalized surgeons in China reached about 70 million in 2020, and the amount of one-time surgical kits was about 19 million, The market scale of disposable surgical package is about 2.2 billion yuan, and the penetration rate is about 20 ~ 30%. If the penetration rate of disposable surgical package in North America is about 88%, the market scale space of disposable surgical package in China is more than 8 billion yuan. Zhende Medical Co.Ltd(603301) as a leader in the field of sensing and control, it is expected to fully benefit from this industry trend. In 2021h1, when the overall epidemic situation in China tends to be stable, Zhende surgical sensing and control business line still maintained a year-on-year growth rate of 83.14%. Under the background of favorable marginal factors such as channel expansion, hospital coverage and personnel expansion, the company is expected to grow into a leader in large sensing and control solutions with business lines such as dressing and wound care.
The layout of the company’s high-end dressings has accelerated, opening up space for long-term growth. From the global trend, the demand for multifunctional, new materials and high value-added medical dressings is becoming more and more urgent, High end medical dressing The (modern wound care products) industry is expected to usher in an excellent development opportunity. According to BMI statistics, the global high-end dressing market is expected to reach US $7.015 billion in 2022. However, in the past, the domestic medical dressing industry as a whole was dominated by basic wound care products, with obvious phenomena such as homogenization and price competition, and relatively low brand recognition and influence. In recent years, in Driven by national medical reform, graded diagnosis and treatment, encouraging innovation, import substitution and other factors, the medical dressing industry has ushered in great changes, the concentration has increased rapidly, and the industry is facing more integration opportunities. The company is now upgrading the structure of its own dressings. In 2021, polyurethane foam dressing, skin wound dressing, bacterial cellulose dressing and other new products were registered. At the same time, it has completed the acquisition of Shanghai Yaao medical health products Co., Ltd. and santerry (Nantong) medical materials Co., Ltd. the above measures are conducive to the company to further establish product technology and competitive barriers and gain greater advantages in industry integration.
Investment suggestion: buy – a investment rating. We expect that the company’s revenue growth from 2021 to 2023 will be – 51.8%, 4.0% and 28.0% respectively, and the net profit growth will be – 76.7%, 4.7% and 31.8% respectively. The investment rating of Buy-A is given for the first time. The six-month target price is 52.36 yuan, equivalent to 20 times the dynamic P / E ratio in 2021.
Risk warning: uncertainty of global covid-19 epidemic; The company’s subsequent orders are less than expected; Product quality risk; Exchange rate fluctuation risk.
