Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) (688516)
Component equipment faucet; Photovoltaic, semiconductor and lithium battery equipment relay in large quantities, and the growth space is opened
1) The company is the leader of module series welding machine (accounting for 85% of revenue), covering mainstream photovoltaic enterprises such as Longji, Trina Solar, Jingke and Jingao. The company's "self research + M & a" extends to the fields of photovoltaic single crystal furnace and semiconductor bonding machine, opening up growth space.
2) In the past three years, the revenue CAGR = 40%, the net profit attributable to the parent CAGR = 57%, and the geometric roe was 17.4%. By the end of the third quarter of 2021, the company's orders on hand had reached 3.625 billion yuan (including tax), a year-on-year increase of 55%. The performance is expected to continue to grow high.
3) The chairman fully subscribed for a fixed increase of RMB 550 million and overweight TOPCON, semiconductor packaging and testing and lithium battery equipment to demonstrate development confidence.
Photovoltaic equipment: benefit from the technical iteration of "large size + multiple main grids + multiple slices"; Open the growth second pole of the long crystal furnace
1) Photovoltaic industry: ten times the demand in the next ten years. We estimate that the global newly installed capacity is expected to reach 1246-1491gw and CAGR will reach 25% - 27% in 2030. The demand for photovoltaic installed capacity will grow tenfold in the next decade, with huge market space.
2) Component series welding machine: meet the multi technology iteration trend of "large size + multiple main grids + multiple segments", and accelerate the iteration cycle of component equipment renewal. The company is the leader of component series welding machine equipment, with a market share of 70%, benefiting from the needs of technology iteration.
3) Long crystal furnace: the value of single crystal furnace (120 million / GW) is six times that of series welding machine (20 million / GW). The company has acquired songporcelain electromechanical and produced 1600 and above direct pull single crystal furnace. It has obtained 160 million orders, opening the second growth curve of the company's photovoltaic.
Semiconductor equipment: cut into the track of bonding machine equipment, and there is a wide space for domestic substitution; It is expected to build another Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516)
1) In 2020, the global market scale of sealing and testing equipment will be about US $9.86 billion. Overseas leaders are highly monopolized, and localization needs to be broken through. Among them, China needs to import about US $1-1.2 billion of bonding machine equipment every year, and there is a broad space for domestic substitution.
2) The company is the first enterprise to replace the domestic aluminum wire bonding machine. It has entered the customer verification stage, with good feedback and orders. In the future, it will extend to gold, copper wire bonding machines and upstream semiconductor equipment to open the second pole of semiconductor business growth.
3) In November 2021, the company's bonding machine was verified for more than half a year and won the first order of Wuxi Deli core. We look forward to another breakthrough.
Lithium battery equipment: break through core customers and speed up orders on hand
In 2016, the company entered the lithium battery equipment industry (module + pack line), covering Chinese high-quality lithium battery customers such as honeycomb energy, vision ASEC, Jinkang power, Ganfeng lithium battery and LG (China). In the first half of 2021, the company's lithium battery orders have reached the level of 2020, and the performance is expected to accelerate. It is proposed to invest 50 million more in cell manufacturing equipment such as stacking machine.
Investment suggestion: optimistic about the company's performance in the field of photovoltaic, semiconductor and lithium battery equipment in the next five years
It is estimated that the revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 2.23/4.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 93% / 47% / 29%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 310 / 450 / 610 million, with a year-on-year increase of 101% / 45% / 34%, and an annual compound growth rate of 58%, corresponding to pe84 / 58 / 43 times. The company's photovoltaic, semiconductor and lithium battery equipment blossomed at multiple points and was rated "buy" for the first time. (restricted equity incentive: deduct non net profit of RMB 270 / 3.8 / 5.3 / 640 million from 2021 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 100% / 40% / 39% / 21%, CAGR = 47%)
Risk tip: the photovoltaic demand is less than expected; The R & D Progress of semiconductor equipment is less than expected; The downstream demand for lithium battery was lower than expected.
