Byd Company Limited(002594) (002594)
Key investment points
Byd Company Limited(002594) as an independent leading enterprise of new energy vehicles, it has developed and produced "three electricity and one core" by itself. The whole vehicle has ushered in the product cycle since the second half of 2020. We believe that the company's performance is expected to exceed expectations in the future. The driving factors for exceeding expectations are as follows:
Driving factor 1: rapid growth of new energy vehicle industry
The penetration of new energy vehicles is accelerated, and the leading independent is expected to benefit. The three major markets of new energy vehicles in the world are developing rapidly. The CAGR of China, the United States and Europe in the next five years is more than 25%, and China's compound growth rate in the next five years is expected to reach 35%. While the overseas new energy market still relies on policy driven, the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) market has changed from subsidy driven to supply side benign driven. Due to the different time points of major automobile enterprises, the head concentration of new energy vehicles is higher in terms of industry attributes; In terms of competition pattern, China's independent brands are fully ahead of joint venture car enterprises. As an independent leader, Byd Company Limited(002594) is expected to benefit from its rising speed.
Driving factor 2: sales growth of new models with accurate positioning
Pure electric hybrid dual line, the new car will become a popular model when it is pushed into the market. Pure electric is marching towards high-end, with Byd Company Limited(002594) Han pricing 200000 +, attacking the medium and high-end market, upgrading product strength and brand image in all aspects. The cumulative sales volume in one year after listing exceeded 100000, breaking the sales ceiling of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) independent brand cars with more than 200000, driving the follow-up products to march towards high-end. Plug in hybrid expands to the middle and low end. The three DM-I models cut into the "blue ocean" of new energy at a price of 120000-160000. The sales volume accounts for half of the hybrid car market, forming a demonstration effect on other enterprises and leading the revolution of China's plug-in hybrid market.
Driving factor 3: the incremental space provided by the battery exceeded expectations
The moisture of iron lithium battery returns, and the external supply space of blade battery is broad. With the rapid development of new energy vehicles, there is a broad market space for power batteries. According to SNE research data, the global installed capacity of power batteries will be 1163 GWH in 2025, more than 8 times that in 2020; At the same time, with the implementation of the refund policy, LFP batteries with both safety and economy are back in tide all over the world. After 19 years of LFP technology accumulation, Byd Company Limited(002594) blade battery has made a breakthrough. GCTP technology has solved the life anxiety of iron lithium battery, and foreign supply is expected to open up market space in the future.
Driving factor 4: cost reduction due to scale effect will enhance profit elasticity
The sales volume of DM-I hybrid motor cars continued to increase, and the scale effect was prominent. The three DM-I super chaotic models are in short supply when they are pushed into the market. The sales volume of hybrid vehicles is expected to exceed 900000 in 2022, and the overall sales volume of the company is expected to reach more than 1.4 million, Byd Company Limited(002594) is expected to become the first independent vehicle enterprise with annual sales of new energy vehicles exceeding one million. The scale effect of automobile enterprises is obvious. The high growth of sales volume dilutes fixed costs such as depreciation and amortization, R & D expenses and management expenses, which reduces the cost of single vehicle. It is expected that the profitability elasticity of automobile business will be greatly improved in the future.
Profit forecast and valuation
The new energy vehicle industry where the company is located is in the early stage of development, and there is a huge space in the future. With the development of the industry and the expansion of market demand, the sales volume of the company's new energy vehicles began to increase significantly in the second half of 2021; The power battery business will gradually start external supply, and the revenue generated by orders will be continuously improved. It is estimated that from 2021 to 2023, the company's revenue will be 1976 / 320.9/396.2 billion yuan, yoy will be 26% / 62% / 23%, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 42.8/89.1/12.48 billion yuan, yoy will be 1% / 108% / 40% respectively; EPS is 1.47/3.06/4.29 yuan / share respectively, and the corresponding P / E is 205 / 98 / 70 times respectively. It is covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
Risk statement
(1) The demand for new energy vehicles is less than expected; (2) the expansion of battery business is less than expected; (3) the sales of new vehicles are less than expected.
