Shanghai Sk Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688155) (688155)
Event: from October 26 to December 12, 2021, the total contract amount signed between the company and catl is about 253 million yuan (excluding tax).
Key investment points
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) orders were accelerated, with high growth in short-term performance and strong certainty
Shanghai Sk Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688155) in early January 2021, the company announced that it had won the Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) + Funeng order of 570 million yuan (including tax); on May 6, it obtained Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 290 million orders (excluding tax); on July 11, it announced that it obtained Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 260 million orders (excluding tax), plus the announced order of 250 million yuan (excluding tax), the total number of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) + Funeng orders announced by the company since the beginning of 2021 is about 1.3 billion yuan (excluding tax), we expect that the newly signed orders in 2021 will reach 2 billion yuan, four times the revenue in 2020 (502 million yuan). Sufficient orders ensure the high growth of short-term performance. At present, the automation rate of module and pack line is at the turning point from low to high, Shanghai Sk Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688155) with the advantage of high automation rate, orders are expected to continue to land.
The delayed delivery of orders leads to lower revenue recognition than market expectations, and the pre expense puts pressure on Q3 profits
In 2021q3, the revenue was 199 million yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of + 131%; Net profit attributable to parent company -02 million yuan, Q3 single quarter loss is mainly due to the impact of revenue recognition speed lagging behind the expansion speed + share based payment expenses: (1) revenue side: the epidemic has led to the delivery of export orders lower than market expectations. For example, the customer's new base construction has lagged behind, resulting in the company's products unable to be delivered according to the original node, and the revenue recognition has been delayed; (2) Cost front: in 2021, lithium battery equipment was in short supply, the company opened six times of capacity expansion, orders increased & production expansion led to a significant increase in expenses. (3) impact of share based payment expenses: the share based payment expenses in the single quarter of 2021q3 were about 8 million yuan. If the impact of share based payment expenses was excluded, the net profit attributable to the parent company in the single quarter of Q3 was 5.6 million yuan.
Actively expand production, solve capacity bottlenecks and wait for profitability to be repaired
The biggest bottleneck of the company is the capacity problem. Previously, due to the lack of space, the capacity expansion was limited. The company raised 640 million yuan through IPO in 2020, It is used to build Wuhan base, expand production capacity (350 million) and supplement working capital (60 million). The Wuhan plant covers an area of 40000 square meters (corresponding to the annual output value of 1 billion yuan), which has been put into operation in 2021q2. In January 2021, it was announced to use the over raised funds to invest in the construction of Changsha base, covering an area of about 40000 square meters (corresponding to the annual output value of 1 billion yuan), we expect that all the bases will be put into operation in March 2022. In addition, the Shanghai base also plans to expand to 40000 square meters (corresponding to the annual output value of 1 billion yuan), and we expect to be put into operation by the end of 2022. We expect that all the three bases will be completed by the end of 2022, and the site area of Shanghai Sk Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688155) will increase from 22000 square meters by the end of 2020 to 120000 square meters.
High automation production line is the general trend, and the inflection point of automation rate has appeared
The improvement of automation rate has accelerated since 2020. We judge that the core reason is the rapid and large volume of electric vehicles in 2020 and the car factory forced the battery factory to make innovation. The automation rate of the module line produced by Shanghai Sk Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688155) is the highest 95%, and the industry average level is 40-70%; The highest automation rate of Shanghai Sk Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688155) pack line is 89%, and the industry average is 5-20%. We believe that the current replacement of module line + pack line machine is the general trend, and the inflection point of advanced production capacity will be good Shanghai Sk Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688155) .
Profit forecast and investment rating: as the pace of revenue recognition is lower than the market expectation and the pre expense puts pressure on Q3 profit, we adjusted the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from RMB 200 / 307 / 463 million in 2021-2023 to 1.23 (down 39%) / 2.61 (down 15%) / 3.76 (down 19%). The current stock price corresponds to the dynamic pe78 / 37 / 26 times, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than the market expectation; The improvement of automation rate of module + pack line is lower than the market expectation.
