Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) (000625)
Event overview
The company released the sales volume in November 2021: the sales volume in November totaled 188000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of - 14.35%; the cumulative sales from January to November totaled 2122500 vehicles, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 17.72%; The total output in November was 220500 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of - 7.0%. The cumulative output from January to November was 2087200 vehicles, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 16.6%.
Analysis and judgment:
The epidemic disturbed the rhythm of short-term shipment, and Ford Lincoln added hard core cars
The sales volume of the company in November was 188030, with a month on month ratio of - 7.1%, and the output was 220452, with a month on month ratio of + 10.2%. We judged that the epidemic situation in Chongqing and Hebei repeatedly affected the company's vehicle shipment in November, the supply of some chips was still tight, and the dealers received orders conservatively due to the delayed delivery compensation policy under the background of abundant orders and low channel inventory. By brand:
1) Independent brand (only including the three core bases of Chongqing, Hebei and Hefei, the same below): in November, the sales volume was 96914, with a chain comparison of - 10.3%, and the output was 109674, with a chain comparison of + 4.5%. Among them, Chongqing and Hebei bases were affected by the epidemic in November, the whole vehicle shipment was blocked, and the wholesale sales volume decreased slightly, with a chain comparison of - 12.3% and - 22.7% respectively, while Hefei base operated normally, with a chain comparison of + 4.2%, realizing a steady growth In terms of model, cs75plus, the main model of CS series, sold 15570 vehicles this month, and released the official picture of the second-generation modified vehicle in November. The appearance of the new car has been optimized and upgraded. The uni family sold 10506 vehicles this month. Meanwhile, the uni-v high-end car was released on November 17, and the product matrix was further improved.
2) Changan Ford: the sales volume in November was 28943, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.7% and a month on month increase of - 2.2%; In November, the output was 34323 vehicles, with a month on month increase of + 9.1%. The trend of replenishment may gradually open. Among them, Ford's high-end brand Lincoln, Its domestic three swordsmen (adventurer, navigator and Aviator) the sales volume in the previous November exceeded 74600, maintaining a strong growth. At the same time, on November 19, the pre-sale of Lincoln Z, its first car, was opened. The pricing range of the new car is 255000 ~ 342000 yuan, the size of the whole car is 4982x1865x1485mm, and the wheelbase is 2930mm. It meets the standard of entry-level medium and large cars, accelerates for 6.8 seconds in 100 kilometers, and is equipped with a through large car and aircraft screen. It is expected to be in March Series, class C, A4L and other benchmarking models have achieved good performance in the market competition. In addition, Changan Ford's first cross-border medium-sized SUV Ford EVOS was officially put on sale on November 19. Compared with the previous pre-sale, the new car added an entry-level technology version, with the price as low as 198800 yuan, which greatly reduced the threshold of car purchase by nearly 30000 yuan. We believe that Changan Ford brand maintains luxury configuration as a whole, but the strategic positioning trend of more people-friendly price is becoming clearer, or it may maintain rapid growth in the Chinese market dominated by additional purchase.
3) Chang'an Mazda: in November, the wholesale sales volume was 14676, with a month on month ratio of - 16.8%; The output was 15167 vehicles, a month on month increase of + 19.1%. Among them, Ma3 anksila is still the sales responsibility of the family. Its retail sales in November were 9031, a slight decrease of 0.6% month on month. In the future, Mazda will accelerate the integration in the three dimensions of marketing system, sales channel and user base, continue to strengthen the strategic layout of Mazda brand in the Chinese market, optimize the business structure and accelerate the exploration of a better development path.
Avita grandly released appearance innovation and focused users
On November 15, avita, a new high-end brand created by Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) in cooperation with Huawei and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , was officially released in Shanghai. At the meeting, avita's development strategy was introduced for the first time and avita 11, the first model of the brand, was unveiled. Avita announced that avita 11 will be officially released in the second quarter of 2022, and the retail network will be unveiled in the same period; In the third quarter of 2022, avita 11 will realize the first batch of mass production and user delivery.
Avita emotional intelligent electric vehicle attaches great importance to the exploration of consumers' real psychological demands and actively initiated user interaction, and actively explores the future oriented humanized travel technology brand. Its first model 11 has bright spots in appearance design and electric intelligence. At the same time, it will also adopt innovative schemes in brand, user operation, channel sales and other links. In the next five years, avita brand will launch four new models.
Investment advice
The company's own brand capacity is fully loaded, the scale effect is prominent, the joint venture brand benefits from the high growth of the luxury car market, the delivery of avita new cars is imminent, and the short-term epidemic disturbance will not change the company's endogenous profit creation ability and scientific and technological growth. We maintain the forecast: it is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 102.865/114.494/125.943 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 45.78/56.64/69.46 billion yuan, the EPS will be 0.60/0.74/0.91 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 17.86 yuan / share on December 10, 2021, and the PE will be 30 / 24 / 20 times, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk statement
The iteration of independent brand models is not as expected; Ford's strategic adjustment is less than expected; Mazda's integration is not as expected; Avita brand development is not as expected.
