Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) (000672)
Key investment points:
The core area of East China grew steadily, the southwest and northwest expanded production capacity reasonably, and vigorously promoted the aggregate and environmental protection business. It is one of the few regional leaders in the industry that still has growth. The company implemented the "T-type strategy" in East China, optimized the resource allocation in production links, and made rich profits. In recent years, it has been distributed in the northwest and southwest regions, increased production capacity and formed regional synergy in some regions of Ningxia, Mongolia and Yunnan Guizhou. At present, there are 11 clinker lines and 4 are still under construction. After all are completed and put into operation, the clinker capacity is expected to exceed 20 million tons. High profit margin business segments such as aggregate and environmental protection have expanded rapidly, with a total planned aggregate capacity of 30 million tons. The company is still growing.
The equity structure is long-term stable, the governance structure is clear and efficient, and the company's profitability is leading in the industry. The main shareholders of the company have cooperated tacitly for many years, forming a governance system with clear rights and responsibilities, and the company's gross profit margin and roe have been leading the industry for a long time. At the same time, the cost rate during the period decreased year by year, and the net profit per ton increased year by year.
New economic investment will be carried out steadily, and the benefits may appear. The company responded to the call for a stable and balanced layout in important science and innovation industries in the field of solving the "neck" problem, and invested in chip semiconductors, high-end manufacturing and other fields through the establishment of private funds. At present, the total investment has reached 742 million yuan. With the continuous listing of investment targets, it is expected to get a return from 2022 and appear in the form of investment income.
Profit forecast and investment rating. The company is a regional leader, with the continuous development of the main cement industry, the rapid expansion of aggregate environmental protection business, still growth, and the investment income of new economy. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 2.489 billion, RMB 3.544 billion and RMB 3.738 billion respectively, corresponding to 6.44, 4.52 and 4.29 times of PE. The company is given a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk tip: the speed of capacity expansion is lower than expected; Cement prices fell; Cement demand is lower than expected; The comprehensive management of mines is becoming more and more strict; The investment income of new economy is less than expected; The uncertainty of the listing process of jingheji technology innovation board; The epidemic has repeatedly affected the economy.
