Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) (002074)
VW has finally landed its fixed increase and Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) has become a global battery leader
On December 12 Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , an announcement was issued to announce the implementation of fixed increase to Volkswagen. After this transaction, Volkswagen holds about 440 million shares, with a shareholding ratio of 26.47%. It is the largest shareholder in name of the company. The voting right of Volkswagen China is 13.17%, the shareholding ratio of founding shareholder Li Zhen and his concerted action is 18.17%, and the voting right ratio is 18.17%. Li Zhen and his concerted action are still the actual controllers of the company. We maintain our previous expectations. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 519 / 840 / 1099 million respectively, and the EPS will be RMB 0.31/0.50/0.66 respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price is 191.9/118.6/90.6 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
In 2025, Volkswagen’s demand for standard cells in China is expected to exceed 40gwh
(1) Cathode material: both iron and lithium, and standard cells prefer iron and lithium; (2) expected shipment time of standard cells: around 2024; (3) standard cell process: square and laminated; (4) Volkswagen battery demand: Volkswagen expects trams to account for about 20% in 2025 and 50% in 2030, with reference to Volkswagen’s annual sales volume in China of about 4 million (assuming that Volkswagen’s annual sales volume in China is relatively stable at 4 million vehicles), the sales volume of trams is expected to reach 800000 vehicles in 2025 and 2 million vehicles in 2030, with 65kwh per vehicle (the charging capacity of ID4 entry-level model is about 57kwh, and the charging capacity of long-life model is more than 80kwh, all of which are ternary batteries. The charging capacity of iron and lithium in the same volume is expected to be less, assuming that the average vehicle is 65kwh). Measured, 52gwh batteries are expected to be required in 2025, assuming that 80% of them are standard cells, corresponding to 41.6gwh standard batteries.
The upstream lithium carbonate layout reduces the cathode cost, and the downstream establishes cooperation with head independent brands one by one
Upstream: under the background of relatively stable prices of other raw materials, lithium carbonate is the raw material with the greatest cost pressure in the upstream of the battery. Since late November, the price of lithium carbonate has continued to rise slightly, and has risen to nearly 230000 yuan / ton. Only the cost of lithium carbonate accounts for about 25% – 30% of the cost of battery materials. Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) is a battery enterprise with a certain layout at the lithium resource end in addition to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in the industry. The company’s lithium carbonate project in Yichun is expected to achieve 10000 tons / year in 2022, and 10000 tons can be used for the company to ship about 16gwh batteries, Lithium carbonate shipment is expected to significantly reduce the procurement cost of raw materials (the cost of lithium carbonate is less than 30000-40000 yuan / ton). Downstream: Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) establish extensive cooperation with China’s Chang’an, great wall, new forces of car making, Zero run, Weima and Hezhong new energy. Potential customers include Xiaopeng (sample delivery stage), Geely (during negotiation) and GAC (key breakthrough in 2022).
Production risk prompt: upstream raw material price fluctuation and intensified industry competition
