Core ideas of this week
1) the confrontation on the Russian Ukrainian border is becoming increasingly tense. The civil armed forces in eastern Ukraine and the Ukrainian government forces point at each other and fire on each other. Russian armed forces opened fire on the eastern Ukrainian armed forces in 15 minutes, according to the Ukrainian news agency. The official believed that the Ukrainian government forces seriously violated the ceasefire agreement and used the heavy weapons prohibited in the Minsk agreement, and the eastern Ukrainian armed forces launched a counterattack against the Ukrainian government forces. On the same day, according to Reuters, the Ukrainian military denied the accusation of the Ukrainian armed forces about the attack by the government forces, saying that the Ukrainian armed forces shelled the Ukrainian government forces, and reported on the 19th that the shelling had killed two Ukrainian troops and injured four. The attack occurred at a time of tense relations between Russia and NATO. NATO member states have always claimed that Russia has assembled troops on the Russian Ukrainian border to prepare for “invasion”. Russia warned that Ukraine may provoke and solve the crisis in eastern Ukraine by force. Earlier in the day of the outbreak of the conflict, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Konashenkov said that according to the Russian military exercise plan, the troops performing exercise tasks in various shooting ranges in Russia are returning to their long-term garrison, and the first batch of marching troops have arrived at their long-term garrison. On the other hand, according to China Central Television Network, the U.S. Department of Defense announced last week that 3000 additional soldiers would arrive in Poland this week, and the U.S. Air Force F-35 fighters also arrived at spandalham Air Force Base in Germany on Wednesday. At present, the global situation is becoming increasingly tense and regional conflicts occur frequently. Under the background of national strong military preparation, the relevant military industry chains are expected to continue to benefit.
2) Aerospace Hi-Tech Holding Group Co.Ltd(000901) the group announced a number of major Changzheng Engineering Co.Ltd(603698) plans for this year, and is expected to maintain more than 50 high-density launches throughout the year. In February 17th, the official account of Aerospace Hi-Tech Holding Group Co.Ltd(000901) group announced the planning and progress of a series of Changzheng Engineering Co.Ltd(603698) tasks this year. According to the plan, China will launch two cargo spacecraft, two Shenzhou spacecraft and two space station experimental modules this year to fully build the Chinese space station. In Tianjin, the new generation of carrier rockets Long March 5 and Long March 7 are ready to go; In Wenchang, Hainan, the Long March 8 yao-2 carrier rocket is about to launch one arrow and 22 stars; In the Fifth Institute of the Aerospace Hi-Tech Holding Group Co.Ltd(000901) group, a new manned spacecraft is in the process of pre launch status confirmation. This year, China will maintain a high density of more than 50 space launches. Facing deeper and farther space in the future, heavy rockets with a payload of more than 100 tons and a new generation of manned rockets have also entered the development stage. In addition, the fourth phase of the lunar exploration project will be fully launched this year. In the future, China will establish the basic model of China’s first lunar scientific research station through three missions: Chang’e 6, Chang’e 7 and Chang’e 8. Asteroid exploration is also about to usher in new challenges. The relevant person in charge of the project said that China is expected to realize the sampling and return from small planets, and also carry out the early development of sampling and return from Mars. Although the task is very difficult, the whole line of the project is confident to implement it in place. With the increasingly full tasks in the aerospace field, it is expected that the landscape of relevant industrial chains will continue to improve.
Focus on aviation, aerospace, informatization and new materials:
1) aviation equipment: both the surrounding situation and the construction of Navy and air force have put forward new requirements for military aircraft. At present, there is a large room for improvement in the number and structure of Chinese military aircraft. It is expected that with the national defense budget inclined to weapons and equipment, especially the air force and Navy, it is expected to accelerate the upgrading of military aircraft. The disclosure of large contract liabilities by many companies in the early stage may further improve the cash flow of the industrial chain and promote the production and delivery of products. We believe that aviation equipment will show a high boom during the 14th Five Year Plan period, driving the improvement of industrial chain performance. In addition, the reform of military pricing mechanism and the increase of equity incentive scheme will also promote the improvement of industry profit level. It is suggested to pay attention to: [ Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) ], [ Avic Xi’An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) ], [ Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) ], [ Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) ], [ Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) ], [ Hefei Jianghang Aircraft Equipment Co.Ltd(688586) ], [ Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) ], [ Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) ], [ Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) ], [ Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) ], [ Chengdu Ald Aviation Manufacturing Corporation(300696) ], [ Jiangsu Maixinlin Aviation Science And Technology Corp(688685) ].
2) aerospace equipment: in terms of missile weapons and equipment, the main driving factors of the missile industry mainly come from: the first is the iterative period, the second is the increase in the demand for strategic reserves, and the third is driven by practical training. The missile sector may be the most flexible segment during the 14th Five Year Plan period, which will bring rapid performance thickening of relevant listed companies. Pay attention to the overall opportunities of the missile sector, and give priority to the targets with high performance flexibility and high proportion of missile business. It is suggested to pay attention to: [ Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) ] and [ Beijing Relpow Technology Co.Ltd(300593) ]. In terms of Satellite Internet, Beidou navigation: the year-on-year growth rate of Beidou satellite navigation industrial chain began to increase in 2021, and it is expected to maintain a high growth rate in 2022 and 2023. In Beidou navigation industrial chain, the demand for Beidou navigation chips and Beidou navigation terminals increased rapidly; Satellite internet field: China Spacesat Co.Ltd(600118) network group is expected to become the main force of China Spacesat Co.Ltd(600118) Internet. At present, although China Spacesat Co.Ltd(600118) Internet is still in the early stage of development, Satellite Internet will still become an important development direction of 6G mobile communication. It is suggested to pay attention to: [ Chengdu Corpro Technology Co.Ltd(300101) ] and [ Chengdu M&S Electronics Technology Co.Ltd(688311) ].
4) informatization sector: due to factors such as the localization process, military modernization and accelerated update of new models, it has continued to surpass the growth of the industry since 2018, focusing on military semiconductors, upstream electronic components, radar and electronic countermeasures, communication, navigation and remote sensing. The performance of some companies has taken the lead in entering the high-speed growth stage and is expected to continue in 2022. It is suggested to pay attention to: [ China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) ], [ Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) ], [ Chengdu Zhimingda Electronics Co.Ltd(688636) ].
5) new materials: it is suggested to focus on the direction of superalloys, titanium alloys and carbon fiber composites. Military new material technology has basically achieved self-control and represents China’s leading level, and the dual / multi flow system of model certification makes suppliers limited, and the competition pattern at the supply side is good. At the demand side, due to the large volume of main battle models and supporting engines, the proportion of new material application continues to increase, the outsourcing proportion of main engine manufacturers, domestic substitution and other factors, It is expected that the future growth of the industry is highly deterministic, and the scale effect will continue to appear after the demand increases, driving the continuous decline of unit cost. Therefore, the gross profit margin of the industry may still have room to improve and gradually realize to profit, and has the possibility of urgent development to the civil market, with good long-term growth. It is suggested to pay attention to: [ Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) ], [ Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) ], [ Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) ], [ Avic Aviation High-Technology Co.Ltd(600862) ].
Risk warning: the replacement of weapons and equipment is not as expected; The development of a new missile model was not as expected.
