Industry dynamic information
This week’s market:
This week, the commercial trade industry rose or fell by 0.14%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.67pct and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.95pct, ranking 18th in the CITIC primary index.
Plate performance:
Among the sub sectors of Commerce and retail industry, the trade sector rose or fell the first this week, with an increase or decrease of + 4.86%. Among the other sectors, professional chains > Commercial Property Management > multi industry retail > supermarkets > department stores, with increases and decreases of + 4.40%, + 0.96%, + 0.54%, – 1.09% and – 2.26% respectively.
Key events:
The Bureau of statistics released the CPI data in January: the CPI in January increased by 0.9% year-on-year, with a growth rate of -0.6pct month on month, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.2pct, of which the CPI of food in January was-3.8%, with a growth rate of -2.6pct month on month, with a year-on-year increase of -5.4pct. CPI growth continued to fall in January.
Several policies on promoting the recovery and development of difficult industries in the field of service industry jointly issued by multiple departments: continue the policy of adding and subtracting value-added tax in the service industry. In 2022, the current deductible input tax of taxpayers in production and living services will continue to be added and deducted by 10% and 15% respectively.
Investment suggestions:
① optional consumption: grasp the high growth of high-quality tracks: the recovery trend of some optional categories is highly deterministic, and the subdivided tracks maintain a high boom. During the Spring Festival, gold and jewelry consumption continued to be hot. It is recommended to pay attention to Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) and Chow Tai Fook of jewelry retail track. The superposition resonance between gold price and consumption cycle and the continuous expansion of channel end; And pay attention to the liquor distribution leader Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) .
Continue to focus on the business and cross-border electricity supplier tiktok: focus on the leading business operators, and raise the Hangzhou Onechance Tech Corp(300792) of the channel.
③ pay attention to the fundamental improvement of undervalued targets: the supermarket industry benefits from the improvement of competition pattern and the easing of downward pressure on food CPI, and pay attention to Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) ; The department store industry pays attention to continuously promoting the reform of state-owned enterprises and is expected to launch Chongqing Department Store Co.Ltd(600729) equity incentive.
Risk tips:
1. Intensified industry competition; 2. Channel expansion is less than expected; 3. Residents’ marginal propensity to consume decreased
