Zhou viewpoint: under the background of wide credit and wide currency, the margin of real estate policy is better, and the expectation of steady growth in Q1 continues to rise. We believe that the undervalued and steady growth sectors (glass and cement) in the first quarter are expected to get out of stronger relative returns, the issuance of special bonds in advance and the gradual implementation of supporting key projects, and the expectation of high growth of infrastructure in Q1 boosts the cement sector; The resilience of the real estate completion cycle remains the same. After the festival, glass traders actively replenish the warehouse. The continuous rise of glass prices promotes the flexibility of performance. It is expected that the upward revision of performance will be the biggest catalyst for the current stock price; Secondly, the bad credit impairment of consumer building materials will gradually come out with the advent of the annual report season. At the same time, Q1 real estate is expected to usher in the bottom of the fundamentals. The consumer building materials enterprises after the early adjustment will unload the burden and start again, and the leading enterprises have their own α Advantages, the industry will reproduce new configuration opportunities after reaching the bottom.
Consumer building materials: the bad credit impairment is gradually exhausted, and the leader welcomes the good opportunity of allocation. In view of the default of accounts and notes receivable of Baolei real estate enterprises, some consumer building materials enterprises make credit impairment provision to varying degrees, which affects the current performance. The negative market concerns about the impairment of accounts receivable and notes will also be gradually implemented with the disclosure of the annual report. The leading enterprises of consumer building materials will unload their burdens and start again. The policy side will continue to catalyze and the monetary policy will continue to be loose. The central bank has stated that it will open the monetary policy toolbox a little bigger in the future. The market is expected to cut the reserve requirement and interest rate again, and the edge of the real estate chain will be better; With the support of policies, the real estate chain may reach the bottom and stabilize in the first quarter. The trend of increasing the concentration of leading consumer building materials is determined, and the growth is still stable. There may be new investment opportunities in the first quarter. Waterproof materials that run through the construction cycle and are catalyzed by industry standards are preferred (pay attention to Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) ); Secondly, focus on the coatings with consumption properties ( Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) ), gypsum board benefiting from the completion cycle ( Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) ), pipe faucet with excellent business quality ( Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ), pipe faucet (China Liansu) and small ceramic tile faucet ( Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ).
Cement: Q1 steady growth is expected to rise, and cement can be used as a good choice for defense and counterattack. After the Spring Festival, the demand in the South will gradually recover. At present, all localities are still implementing peak shifting production, and the price of clinker along the Yangtze River Delta and South China will take the lead in raising the price, which is expected to kick off the price rise in spring. The national development and Reform Commission recently said that it would appropriately advance infrastructure investment and solidly promote the implementation of 102 major projects in the 14th five year plan. In the early stage, the Ministry of Finance had issued a new special debt limit of 1.46 trillion in 2022 to all localities in advance, with financial support; At the same time, the gradual implementation of investment in key infrastructure projects in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong and other places will boost the demand in the beginning of spring. The high growth expectation of infrastructure investment in the first quarter is increased. Under the background of steady growth, the cement sector with undervalued value and high profit is expected to usher in a restless market in spring. It is recommended to pay attention to the faucet Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) and the elastic target Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) .
Glass: after the festival, the price is actively pushed up, and the volume and price rise together, pushing up the performance elasticity. After the festival, traders and processing plants actively replenished the stock. This week, the inventory of the industry decreased by 5.32 million heavy boxes, the shipment of enterprises gradually improved, and the expectation of price increase was strong; We believe that traders actively replenish the stock, on the one hand, it shows that they are optimistic about the recovery of demand after the festival; On the other hand, due to the impact of the rising price of soda ash at the cost side, manufacturers are expected to increase prices after the festival, prompting traders to replenish their stocks. At present, the industry inventory belongs to the normal inventory level, and most enterprises have little inventory pressure. With the gradual recovery of downstream demand, the industry inventory is expected to decline rapidly. From a macro perspective, the demand for real estate completion remains resilient, with a real estate sales area of more than 1.7 billion square meters in 18-21 years. With the arrival of the housing delivery cycle and the background of guaranteed housing delivery, new construction accelerates the transmission of support demand to completion; The marginal improvement at the policy level and the continuous easing of monetary policy. With the restoration of real estate pessimism, the orders postponed since the second half of last year will catch up with the work, and the suppressed demand will be released in a centralized manner. It is optimistic that the volume and price of glass will rise in a new round. At the same time, the industrial chain extension of leading enterprises is gradually emerging, the proportion of growth businesses is gradually increasing, and the periodic fluctuation is gradually smoothed (it is recommended to pay attention to Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , Xinyi Glass).
Glass fiber: the resumption of production after the festival boosted the demand for roving, and the price of electronic yarn was temporarily stable. After the festival, the lower reaches of roving just need to actively replenish the warehouse, the shipment of enterprises is gradually restored, the inventory of the industry continues to operate at a low level, and the price remains stable at a high level; The price of electronic yarn is temporarily stable after adjustment. The mainstream price of electronic yarn G75 is about 11000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of electronic cloth is about 4.5 yuan / meter. We believe that the resumption of work and production after the festival will accelerate, and the demand will gradually pick up. Some auto demand will be delayed or supported by the “lack of core” in 2021. The demand in 2022 is still strong, and the demand for thermoplastic yarn is still strong; Recently, the wind power installed capacity in some regions is planned to increase rapidly, and the installed capacity of wind power in the 14th five year plan may exceed the expectation again, so as to stimulate the demand of upstream and downstream industrial chains and wind power yarn, and the demand for high-end products in 2022 may be in full force; According to the tracked industry expansion plan, in 2022, the new supply is limited, the supply and demand of the industry remain matched, and the high outlook of the industry is sustained or far beyond expectations. At the same time, the leading enterprises have capacity expansion, and the continuous high price operation brings high performance elasticity (it is recommended to pay attention to China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) ).
Risk warning: the investment in fixed assets is lower than expected; The aggravation of trade conflict leads to the obstruction of sales volume of export enterprises; The margin of environmental protection supervision is relaxed, and the supply contraction is lower than expected; The sharp rise in the price of raw materials has brought cost pressure.
