The latest boom index was – 6.25, and last week’s boom index was 46.59. This week (02.14-02.18), the basic chemical industry index (CITIC) rose 4.17% and the Shanghai Stock Exchange rose 0.80%.
High oil prices fluctuated. The closing price of oil distribution on Friday was US $93.54/barrel, down US $0.90/barrel from last week. The highest spot price in the week exceeded US $100 / ton, and oil distribution futures once reached US $96 / ton; The number of crude oil drilling rigs in the United States increased, with 520 crude oil drilling rigs in the week, 4 more than the previous value and 19 more than the previous value.
Highlights of this week: 1. The oil price fluctuated at a high level, and the spot price once rose above US $100 / barrel: since this year, the tense situation of crude oil supply and demand has been further highlighted: with the easing of the epidemic in Europe and the United States and the gradual unsealing and other factors, the global demand for crude oil has continued to strengthen; The supply of shale oil in OPEC and the United States has not returned to the level before the epidemic. At present, OPEC crude oil inventory has fallen below the ten-year average, and the crude oil refining gross profit and monthly crude oil difference all show that the global crude oil supply is in short supply. Under the catalysis of geopolitical factors such as the situation in Russia and Ukraine, crude oil prices have continued to strengthen significantly this year. This week, the spot price of Brent crude oil in the North Sea in the UK market reached US $100.8 per barrel on the 16th, breaking 100 for the first time since 2014. Then, it fell slightly under factors such as the easing of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and remained high and volatile as a whole.
2. Traditional energy and chemical leaders accelerated their entry into the field of new energy: following the announcement of the bid winning candidates for the Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) 100000 t / a liquid sunshine (carbon dioxide plus green hydrogen to methanol) project of China coal last week, this week, Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) announced the cooperation framework agreement to cooperate with Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) and Huayou holdings to jointly mine mineral resources, conduct mineral deep processing, joint research and development, production Sales of new energy batteries and upstream and downstream materials. This cooperation affects phosphorus chemical industry, lithium resources and battery materials at the same time, which is another important event for traditional chemical industry leaders to cut into the field of new energy materials.
In terms of the market situation of the chemical sector this week: due to the new trends of the industry and the improvement of market sentiment, the phosphorus chemical industry, chemical fertilizer and new energy materials sectors performed well this week. Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) the new cooperation agreement affected many sectors, and the market sentiment improved this week. Dianxin and other sectors with heavy institutional positions generally rebounded, and the relevant material sectors generally performed well. In addition, the upstream of covid-19 was active, with a 67% increase in Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) weeks.
Key quotes of fine molecule industry this week:
Basic energy and chemical products are still at a high level, with natural gas rising ahead: the price of crude oil is high, and the prices of basic energy, basic chemical and petrochemical products are generally at a high level. Among them, the international natural gas price returns to the rising trend due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and high oil prices, with the weekly increase ranking the first.
The spot price of lithium carbonate continues to rise, and the battery level is close to 450000 yuan: there are rigid restrictions on the supply of lithium carbonate resources, and the demand side benefits from the electric vehicle industry, which continues to exceed expectations. Recently, the price of lithium carbonate continues to rise. At present, the spot price of battery grade lithium carbonate has been close to 450000 yuan / ton.
Target: in terms of sectors, in terms of cycle sector, we mainly recommend soda ash and glyphosate sectors, and suggest paying attention to the long-term growth logic of the target of high-quality new materials.
In terms of the main cycle sub sectors, the short-term boom has fallen, but the long-term pressure on the supply side of energy consumption dual control + environmental protection is still large, and some molecular industries do not lack the growth logic in the internal growth period. We continue to recommend consensus leaders with alpha and excellent long-term logic – Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) , Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) , Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) , Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) ; It is recommended to pay attention to the layout of high-quality new energy / new materials and alternative routes in traditional sectors, such as silicon chemical industry – Zhejiang Xinan Chemical Indusyrial Group Co.Ltd(600596) , phosphorus chemical industry – Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) , chlor alkali – Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co.Ltd(600618) , soda ash – Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) , etc.
In the field of fine chemical industry, some sub industries have formed an oligopoly pattern, such as monosodium glutamate, vitamins, sweeteners, etc. the long-term layout of the subject Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) , Meihua Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600873) is recommended; Coating additives platform company Yuanli Chemical Group Co.Ltd(603217) .
The growth trend of the target period of new materials remains unchanged; In semiconductor field, Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Guangdong Huate Gas Co.Ltd(688268) , Hubei Dinglong Co.Ltd(300054) , National Silicon Industry Group Co.Ltd(688126) , Anji Microelectronics Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688019) , Haohua Chemical Science & Technology Corp.Ltd(600378) , Red Avenue New Materials Group Co.Ltd(603650) are recommended; Continuously recommend Henan Jindan Lactic Acid Technology Co.Ltd(300829) , Shandong Head Co.Ltd(002810) , Jinan Shengquan Group Share Holding Co.Ltd(605589) , Anhui Huaheng Biotechnology Co.Ltd(688639) for bio based materials; Recommended membrane materials Jiangsu Shuangxing Color Plastic New Materials Co.Ltd(002585) , Ningbo Solartron Technology Co.Ltd(688299) , Sichuan Em Technology Co.Ltd(601208) etc; Key recommendations for metal catalyst materials Kaili Catalyst & New Materials Co.Ltd(688269) ; In terms of carbon fiber materials, there is a strong demand in the field of wind power, and domestic substitution is also the general trend. The development of the industry is expected to speed up. It is recommended that Jilin Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000420) , Jilin Carbon Valley, Zhejiang Jinggong Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002006) , Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) .
Varieties with the largest increase in major chemicals:
Ethylene oxide: the latest price ( Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited(600688) ) is 8200 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 13.89%. The price of raw material ethylene shows an upward pattern. Under the pressure of ethylene oxide cost, various enterprises have different loss situations. The load of some devices is not high, and the supporting downstream devices of some production enterprises are started one after another. At this stage, the external sales volume of ethylene oxide is reduced, the production and sales in the region remain in short supply, and the market offer generally rises under the support of cost and supply.
Battery grade lithium carbonate: the latest price (Sichuan) is 445000 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 12.66%. The supply of lithium resources in the upstream is tight and runs at a high price. At the same time, the price of process accessories rises, and the cost side boosts the rise of products. The manufacturers that stopped production before the festival gradually returned to work, and the overall output increment was not obvious. At the same time, most of the manufacturers were supplying old customers, so the tight market supply situation was difficult to alleviate. The bullish sentiment of manufacturers is obvious, the price rises with the high level of the market, the demand for ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate and other downstream products breaks out, the production is expanded rapidly, the heat of terminal new energy is not reduced, and the price of lithium carbonate will continue to rise at both ends of supply and demand.
Butadiene: the latest price ( Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited(600688) ) is 8300 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 12.16%. The closing price of crude oil rose, and the pressure on manufacturers’ production costs remained; There was a sudden accident in the cracking unit of South Korea’s yncc plant. The news gave a significant boost to the butadiene market, which was in a rising situation. Many butadiene enterprises in the market overhauled or reduced the negative production, and the on-site spot supply was tight, so there was a certain boost on the news.
Risk tips
Downstream demand is lower than expected; Great changes have taken place in the industrial policies of high energy consuming sub industries
