Matters:
On February 18, the national development and Reform Commission and other 14 departments jointly issued several policies on promoting the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry, mainly including inclusive relief measures for the service industry (10), catering industry, retail industry, tourism, highway, waterway and railway transportation, and civil aviation (33 in total), Cooperate with the precise implementation of epidemic prevention and control measures (2 articles) and safeguard measures (see the attached table for the sorting of national relief policy system from 2020 to 2022).
Guoxin social service view: 1) policy focus: first, the inclusive relief policy focuses on continuously promoting tax reduction and fee reduction, advocating rent reduction and financial support, so as to reduce the pressure on enterprise operation and cash flow, especially small and micro enterprises; Second, special relief measures to guide the takeout platform stage to reduce fees, provide some epidemic prevention subsidies, and give preferential support to public expenditure, so as to alleviate the pressure; Third, emphasize “precise prevention and control”, reduce the industry impact caused by the repeated overweight of the epidemic, improve the operation status of the industry and boost the confidence of the industry. 2) Maintain the “over allocation” rating of the sector. Although the short-term epidemic continues to repeat and still interferes with the operation of enterprises, it has improved marginally on a month on month basis. At present, investors expect a “marginal improvement” in the epidemic prevention and control situation after March, and the worst moment of the industry has passed. Based on the uncertainty of the short-term epidemic situation and the positive expectation of the stabilization of the midline epidemic situation, based on the midline logic and based on the dimension of 3-6 months, we slightly repeat the Su logic, give consideration to the performance, valuation and theme, and select China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , jiumaojiu, Helens, Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) , Huazhu group-s, yum China-s, etc. Based on the time dimension of 1-3 years, we suggest to continue to be based on the high-quality leader of the boom sub circuit, and focus on China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , hellens, jiumaojiu, Huazhu group-s, Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) , yum China-s, Haidilao, Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Naixue’s tea, Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) in combination with the logical changes of the middle line.
Comments:
Overview: the combination of Pratt & Whitney and special relief measures, strengthening precise prevention and control and multi pronged approach will help boost industry confidence and reduce enterprise pressure
The social service industry has been hit hard by the cold winter of the epidemic for two years. At present, the local epidemic situation in China is still repeated, the industry is still under pressure, and the layers of prevention and control in some regions have further affected the business recovery. The core of the “several policies on promoting the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry” emphasizes precise prevention and control through the combination of inclusive and special relief measures, which helps to partially reduce the operating pressure of relevant enterprises and effectively boost the confidence of practitioners. Among them, we believe that the precise prevention and control policy is very important for the substantive recovery of industry operation, and the relevant tax relief and financial support will help industry enterprises, especially small and micro enterprises, overcome the difficulties, which can be analyzed in three aspects.
Focus 1 of the rescue and recovery policy: the inclusive rescue measures focus on tax reduction and fee reduction and strengthen financial support, which is expected to partially reduce the operating pressure of relevant enterprises
In terms of the inclusive relief measures for the service industry, the core includes tax reduction, fee and rent reduction and financial support, as shown in the table below.
In terms of taxes, it helps to substantially reduce some operating pressure and cash flow pressure.
1) in terms of value-added tax preference, the core is to continue the service industry value-added tax plus Deduction Policy. Although the value-added tax preference is less than that in 2020 (the income from the provision of public transport services and living services will be exempted from value-added tax in 2020), it is expected to be equivalent to that in 2021 (originally scheduled to end at the end of 2021), In essence, it is also expected to reduce the tax burden and cash flow pressure for industry companies in distress. Take Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) as an example, in 2020, its value-added tax related reduction and exemption was nearly 100 million yuan (including a small amount of contribution from real estate tax and land transfer fee reduction and Exemption), which benefited relatively significantly. Although the value-added tax reduction is not as strong as that in 2020, listed companies can still benefit relatively through the continuation of preferential policies, which helps to reduce some cash flow pressure and operating pressure.
2) in 2022, the scope of application of the “six taxes and two fees” reduction will be expanded from small-scale VAT taxpayers to small low profit enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households. We expect that some of the listed companies are subsidiaries that meet the recognition of small and micro enterprises and franchisees that meet the relevant conditions in the hotel and catering industry, or are expected to benefit.
3) according to the actual conditions of various regions, it is authorized to reduce or exempt the real estate tax, urban land use tax, etc. for taxpayers with real difficulties, and the benefit of relevant companies is not excluded. In 2020, Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) relevant taxes will be reduced by about 4 million yuan.
4) the proportion of post stabilization return of inclusive unemployment insurance for small and micro enterprises has been raised from 60% to 90%. It is expected that the subsidiaries of Listed Companies in the sector that meet the above qualifications or relevant qualified franchisees are expected to benefit.
In terms of rent reduction, focusing on small and micro enterprises, leasing state-owned enterprise properties can strive for partial reduction, while leasing private enterprise properties requires negotiation. We expect that it will be relatively beneficial to the qualified subsidiaries and some franchisees of the listed company.
