Crude oil pushes up the price of chemicals in spring, and is still optimistic about phosphorus chemical industry and coal chemical industry. As of February 19, 2022, Brent’s weekly average price was $98.6 / barrel, up (+ 1.2 / barrel) from last week. The western chemical industry index this week was 111.79, up 0.61% month on week and 21.76% year-on-year. According to our data, the products with the highest price increase this week were n-butanol (+ 21.5%), octanol (+ 18.4%), acrylic acid (+ 12.6%), tetrachloroethylene (+ 12.5%) and gasoline (East China) (+ 10.6%). Crude oil pushed up the price in spring. We are still optimistic about the agrochemical market brought by inflation and the coal chemical market brought by the rise of oil and the fall of coal.
Phosphorus chemical industry has returned to the cost performance range. 1) On February 11, Bayer wrote to customers that due to the supply of key raw materials, the output will decline sharply. It is expected that the maintenance of the production line will take about three months. Glyphosate prices are expected to rise. 2) This week, monoammonium phosphate is quoted at 3212 yuan and urea is quoted at 2653 yuan. The price of chemical fertilizer is still very strong in the off-season. We are expected to see the price rise again when the spring farming season comes. 3) The international price of chemical fertilizer brought about by the ban on the export of chemical fertilizer forms a large price difference with that in China, among which the price difference of potassium chloride outside China is about – 50 to 0 yuan / ton, the price difference of urea outside China is about 800 yuan / ton, and the price difference of monoammonium phosphate outside China is about 2200-2300 yuan / ton. It is expected that the state may release the export restrictions of chemical fertilizer after spring farming, which will prolong the boom sustainability of agrochemical industry. After three months of adjustment, phosphorus chemical industry has returned to the range of cost performance. We strongly recommend that you pay attention to the companies of phosphorus chemical industry, Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) , Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) .
Cost performance and incremental logic of coal chemical industry. During the Spring Festival, the price of crude oil exceeded US $95, which means that the cost performance of coal chemical industry is further improved; The European carbon emission price has exceeded 95 euros / ton, which means that the theme of double carbon will continue. The policy that the energy consumption of raw materials before the festival is not included in the dual control index of energy consumption is a deregulation for companies whose projects cannot be approved due to the dual control of energy consumption. At the end of January, Henan Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued a document requiring that the total energy consumption will not be assessed for those who achieve the provincial target of reducing energy consumption intensity, All localities shall not restrict the construction of new projects that meet the requirements on the grounds of completing the total energy consumption control target. In combination with the needs of stabilizing the national economy, we believe that we will welcome the landing of chemical construction projects after the Spring Festival. It is suggested to focus on Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) and Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) .
In 2022, we put forward a new strategic view of “earning beta repair performance and alpha valuation”, “looking for beta with profit repair and looking for it α “High quality target”, see our annual strategy report for details.
Risk warning: safety accidents affect the commencement; Rapid iteration of technical route; Changes in environmental protection policies.
