Express delivery: in January, the industry demand was disturbed by the wrong period, and the price became positive year-on-year; The growth rate of Tongda’s leading parts is higher than the industry average. The price is strong after the peak season. It is optimistic about Q1 performance and remains optimistic about the off-season; The growth rate of SF parts volume stabilized and rebounded, and the price increased month on month.
1) the volume growth of the industry in January was greatly affected by the wrong period of the Spring Festival. The year-on-year growth rate of prices became positive for the first time in recent two years, and continued to verify the upward inflection point of prices: in January, the business volume of national express service enterprises completed 8.77 billion pieces, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, and the growth rate decreased by 7.5pts compared with that in December. We believe that it is mainly affected by the wrong period of the Spring Festival holiday, In the last week of January this year, the demand dropped significantly due to the approaching Spring Festival holiday. In January, the average unit price of the industry was 10.46 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.35% (an increase of 0.24 yuan) and a month on month increase of + 7.83% (an increase of 0.76 yuan). The year-on-year growth rate of the unit price of the industry in January became positive, which was the first positive growth of the unit price of the industry in recent two years, and the inflection point of the industry price was verified again.
2) the growth rate of Tongda is differentiated, but it is higher than the growth rate of the industry. The price continues to improve month on month. It is optimistic about the performance of Q1: in January, the growth rate of business volume of Tongda enterprises is Yunda + 9.09%, Yuantong + 4.84% and Shentong + 17.30%. The growth rate of Tongda components is differentiated, and the leaders continue to show different competitive strategies: Yuantong adheres to the quality of profits and faces structural changes of slowing demand in the short term; Yunda gives consideration to the balance of quantity and price; Shentong enjoys the business volume dividend under the price advantage. The growth rate of Tongda’s leading parts exceeds that of the industry. We believe that it may be due to the slowdown in the growth of other peers and the outflow of parts. Unit price of each company: Yunda link ratio + 0.27 yuan, Yuantong link ratio + 0.22 yuan, Shentong link ratio + 0.15 yuan. Excluding the changes in the settlement caliber of each company and rookie wrapping business, the unit price of Yunda and Yuantong in January increased by 0.18 and 0.12 yuan month on month respectively, and the unit price of Shentong decreased slightly by 1 point month on month. Since the peak season of 2021, the single ticket income of Tongda headquarters has increased steadily in January. On the one hand, due to the transmission of the temporary cost rise of the Spring Festival, on the other hand, it also reflects the continuous slowdown of the price competition in the industry. Combined with the recent tracking of major grain producing areas, we believe that the profitability of Q1 head company will continue to improve significantly, and the volume and price performance in the off-season of this year is expected to exceed expectations.
3) the growth rate of SF shipment volume stabilized and rebounded, and the price increased month on month: in January, SF shipment volume increased by + 10.01% year-on-year, and the growth rate of shipment volume stabilized and rebounded. We believe that it is mainly related to the strong demand for delivery of new year goods and gifts before the Spring Festival. In January, the unit price of SF was + 3.80% year-on-year, and the growth rate became positive for three consecutive months. We believe that it is mainly due to the change of commodity structure. Since the adjustment of the unit quantity structure, the growth rate of unit quantity and unit price has gradually stabilized, and the performance has improved quarter by quarter. It is expected to usher in an inflection point in operation in 2022.
The price of Tongda is strong recently, and it is optimistic about the certainty and performance elasticity of leading enterprises throughout the year. Shunfeng has established the inflection point of operation and is optimistic about the leading value of comprehensive logistics. The policy promotes franchised express delivery to curb irrational competition and emphasize high-quality development. The price center of Tongda express delivery moves upward. It is expected that the profits of leading enterprises will continue to improve in the future; On the supply side, after Jitu acquired Baishi, it once again strengthened the competition pattern of the industry head; From a medium and long-term perspective, under the background of continuous improvement of online penetration, the demand growth of the express industry is highly deterministic, and service has become a new competitive factor. After the pattern is stable, the industry leaders will fully benefit from the increase of share and profit; A shares mainly recommend S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) (the inflection point of fundamentals is established), Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , and US stocks are optimistic about China Express.
Aviation: the relief policy of the civil aviation industry continued in 2022. The National Health Commission began to deploy covid-19 vaccine to strengthen the injection. It is optimistic that the supply and demand of the industry will reverse after the epidemic is alleviated, and the aviation enterprises have high profit elasticity.
1) the relief policy for the civil aviation industry continues, involving the advance payment of value-added tax, local financial support, aviation fuel costs, aviation enterprise financing, etc.: on February 18, 14 departments including the national development and Reform Commission issued several policies on promoting the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry, referring to five relief and support measures for the civil aviation industry, including: suspending the advance payment of value-added tax by air transport enterprises for one year in 2022; Local governments can coordinate the central transfer payment and their own financial resources to support airlines in epidemic prevention and control; Coordinate resources and increase financial support for civil aviation infrastructure construction; Study, coordinate and promote China Aviation Fuel Group Co., Ltd. to negotiate with upstream enterprises to cancel the sea freight premium, port fee and other expenses included in the price of aviation kerosene; Eligible airlines are encouraged to issue corporate credit bonds to broaden financing channels and establish a green channel for airlines seriously affected by the epidemic to register and issue debt financing instruments. The rescue policy will help aviation enterprises alleviate the pressure of cash flow and reduce fuel costs (we estimate that the cost of aviation fuel per ton can be reduced by 140 yuan and the cost of the three major aviation savings is about 500-700 million yuan), so as to survive smoothly before the recovery of the epidemic, reduce losses and ensure the sustainable development of the industry.
2) the National Health Commission began to deploy sequential enhanced immunization, which is expected to gradually alleviate the epidemic and promote the continuous recovery of the aviation industry: on February 19, the National Health Commission said that it had recently begun to deploy sequential enhanced immunization (mixed fight), and said that the homologous enhanced immunization already carried out in China could reduce the breakthrough infection rate of Omicron by more than three times compared with the basic immunization, Heterologous reinforcement is considered to have better effect than homologous reinforcement. Previously, China has approved the import of Pfizer oral drugs. With the continuous promotion of vaccination and specific drugs, the epidemic is expected to ease gradually. It is optimistic that the civil aviation industry will usher in an operating inflection point in 2022.
3) the epidemic situation in Hong Kong radiates to some parts of Guangdong, and the epidemic situation is generally controllable. At present, the airport is still in normal operation: on February 19, the Hong Kong Center for Health Protection announced that 6063 cases of covid-19 pneumonia were newly confirmed in Hong Kong, with a total of 46763 cases confirmed. The epidemic situation in Hong Kong has radiated to Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Dongguan and other regions in Guangdong. According to the introduction of the National Health Commission, the associated epidemic situation in Shenzhen Omicron has been basically controlled. The epidemic situation in Dongguan and Zhuhai is strengthening the flow investigation and traceability work, and the epidemic situation is generally controllable. According to the flight steward data, the flight volume of Shenzhen Bao’an airport from February 16 to 18 was 763, 721 and 727 respectively. At present, it is still in normal operation and has not been significantly impacted.
On the demand side, the worst period of the epidemic has basically passed. With the promotion of needle vaccination and specific drugs, the suppressed travel demand will gradually recover. On the supply side, the introduction of airlines’ transport capacity is slow, Boeing and Airbus orders accumulate, and even the 737max go around still does not change the low growth rate of transport capacity. The low growth rate of supply in the medium term has high certainty. In addition, the market-oriented reform of civil aviation ticket prices has opened up the space for price elasticity. The inflection point of supply and demand certainty is superimposed on the upward ticket price, and aviation is expected to usher in a round of growth cycle. Focus on recommending Air China Limited(601111) with high-quality routes (which will significantly benefit from the recovery of official travel); Low cost aviation leader Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) ; China line accounts for a high proportion of China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) with high performance flexibility; China Eastern Airlines with obvious location advantages; Focus on Regional Airlines China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) .
Airport: affected by the spread of the epidemic, the passenger flow in January Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) increased moderately year-on-year. The number of Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) take-off and landing sorties in January 2022 increased slightly by + 19.55% year-on-year in China and + 0.34% year-on-year in the world. Passenger throughput was + 12.80% in China and + 15.32% in the world. In January, due to the epidemic situation in Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou and other places and the gradual entry of the Spring Festival transportation process, the overall passenger flow of Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) increased moderately year-on-year. The short-term airport aviation business has declined due to the disturbance of the epidemic, and the epidemic in China is generally controllable. With the continuous promotion of vaccination, China’s international aviation passenger flow is expected to gradually recover.
In the long run, the airport’s aviation business is stable, while the tax-free industry has huge space. Listed airports will continue to benefit from tax-free dividends in the future, focusing on the airport leaders Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) .
Road and Railway: the railway freight volume grew steadily in January, and the China Europe trains maintained a high growth rate. In January, 41.26 million tons of goods were sent by railways across the country, a year-on-year increase of + 1.2%, which still achieved year-on-year growth despite the advance of the Spring Festival holiday this year, reflecting the steady growth of freight demand. In January, 1304 China Europe trains were operated, with a year-on-year increase of 11%, maintaining a high growth rate. In addition, the railway between China and Laos opened in December last year, and the 2098 vehicles for loading and unloading of imported and exported goods in January increased by 30%, giving full play to the role of the old fellow railway old fellow. One belt, one road and new international routes such as land and sea is expected to maintain steady growth in the growth of China’s macro-economy.
This week’s investment strategy: in January, the price of express delivery is strong, and the leading growth rate is ahead of the market. At the same time, it is expected that each company will continue its stable price policy in the off-season. The industrial regulatory policy is expected to be intensively implemented in March to promote high-quality development. In 2022, Tongda Express has certainty and performance flexibility, and pays attention to the inflection point and leading value of the industry. In addition, Shunfeng, the leader of comprehensive logistics, ushers in the inflection point of operation; China’s demand for aviation continues to recover, special drugs and strengthening needles are promoted one after another, overseas countries gradually relax control, and international lines release marginal improvement expectations. At the same time, supply certainty slows down. They are optimistic about the reversal of supply and demand in the aviation industry and the superposition of fare market-oriented reform to open up flexible space. Combination this week: Air China Limited(601111) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) .
Risk tips:
1) the risk of macroeconomic downturn will have a great impact on the overall demand for transportation.
2) the price competition in the express industry exceeds the market expectation. At present, the price war in the express industry is generally controllable, but it does not rule out a large-scale price war, eroding the profits of listed companies.
3) risk of rising oil price and labor cost. Transportation and labor costs, as the main costs of transportation companies, may face the risk of rising oil prices and sharply rising labor costs.
