The real estate policy was relaxed, and the special debt helped the construction of key projects
This week, the financial Associated Press and other media reported that the payment proportion of the first house in Heze, Shandong Province, such as ICBC, China Construction Bank and Agricultural Bank of China, was reduced from 30% to 20%, and the loan interest rates of the first house and the second house were reduced from 5.95% and 6.14% at the end of last year to 5.6% and 5.96% respectively. In addition, many banks in Chongqing and Ganzhou, Jiangxi have reduced the down payment proportion of the first house loan to 20% before and after the Spring Festival, The recent relaxation of policies in many places will help stabilize market expectations. At the same time, this week, finance minister Liu Kun once again pointed out that we should reasonably arrange special bonds of local governments to ensure the construction of key projects. On the whole, under the background of “steady growth”, it is suggested to actively pay attention to the actual role of real estate and infrastructure as the representative of traditional economic momentum.
Continue to raise prices after the glass Festival and grasp the window period of “stable growth” of investment
At the beginning of the new year, the market worried about the future economic downturn spread, and the major indexes continued to weaken. In the same period, the central bank and the national development and Reform Commission continued to introduce relevant measures to accelerate “steady growth”. Since the industry is still in the post holiday resumption stage in the off-season, the final strength and elasticity of “stable growth” can not be falsified, and the market has entered a good window period of “stable growth” in the game of “traditional economic growth kinetic energy”, it is suggested to pay attention to the relevant varieties with capital construction and real estate demand and high safety margin in valuation, and grasp the cement and Window opportunities for glass; The tracking and investment suggestions of each sub industry at the current time point are as follows:
Cement: Recently, affected by off-season factors, rainy and snowy weather and repeated epidemics in some areas, the overall demand recovery progress in the downstream is slow. In addition, due to the weak demand in the fourth quarter of last year, the capital recovery of the downstream mixing plant is poor, resulting in low enthusiasm for starting after the festival. As of February 18, the shipment rate was only about 14.6%, down 8.98 percentage points from the same period last year, National p.o42 5. The average price of high-standard cement is 514.0 yuan / ton, with a slight decrease of 0.32% month on month, the storage capacity ratio of 66.8% and an increase of 0.2% month on month. It is noteworthy that the second round of price increase has been carried out for clinker in the Yangtze River Delta this week. With the continuous promotion of the “steady growth” policy and the continuous return of workers from all over the country, the future demand is expected to recover gradually. It is recommended that Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) 、 Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) 、 Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) 、 Gansu Qilianshan Cement Group Co.Ltd(600720) ；
Glass: since this week, downstream processing plants have started to replenish, the production line inventory of float enterprises continues to decrease, the social inventory gradually increases, and the short-term market has entered the stage of de social inventory. According to Zhuo Chuang information, the average price of float glass in China’s mainstream market this week was 2398.62 yuan / ton, up 10.51% month on month. The inventory of production enterprises in key provinces was 30.65 million heavy containers, a decrease of 4.4 million heavy containers month on month. In the short term, the downstream started replenishment successively, but the overall operating rate is still at a low level. Pay attention to the incremental order demand of downstream processing plants; Medium and long-term technological upgrading of glass industry is still the focus. We recommend Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) and Xinyi Glass.
Other building materials: ① glass fiber industry: the market price of roving in alkali free tank kiln is basically stable, the roving market can be started, the downstream just needs replenishment, the electronic yarn market is temporarily stable after overall adjustment, and the trading is gradually restored; In the medium and long term, the glass fiber industry is expected to enter a new stage of high-quality and orderly expansion of production capacity, the demand side drives growth, the supply and demand pattern is expected to be continuously optimized, the competitive advantage of leading enterprises is expected to be further consolidated in the future, and the current price can continue to be long. It is recommended that China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) ; ② Other building materials: the resilience of real estate investment remains, and the market share of leading enterprises in various sub industries has increased steadily. It is recommended to hold the bargain hunting layout for a long time, and Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Ocean’S King Lighting Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002724) , Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Chongqing Zaisheng Technology Co.Ltd(603601) are recommended.
Risk warning: the landing of the project is lower than expected; Supply increased more than expected; Higher than expected cost increase
