Qiongjiagang and Yunnan lithium mines have attracted more attention from the market, and the development and utilization of China’s lithium resources is at the right time
Event: (1) according to SMM, scientists of Chinese Academy of Sciences found a super large lithium mine – qiongjiagang lithium mine in the Himalayas. The lithium oxide resources in the ore body can reach 1012500 tons, which is located 3000 meters southwest of qiongjiagang peak in the Himalayas. The mining area contains nearly 40 spodumene pegmatite belts with a width of 10 meters to 100 meters, which form four dike groups and four ore belts. On the whole, qiongjiagang lithium mine has the characteristics of large spodumene particles, convenient transportation, exposed ore body and easy mining.
(2) according to China business news, Huayou holdings, the controlling shareholder of Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , has jointly won the lithium mine development project in Yuxi City, Yunnan Province, and will jointly build a new energy battery industry chain with the people’s Government of Yuxi City, with a total investment of 51.7 billion yuan. This project involves a multi-level industrial chain in the new energy battery industry, from the resource exploration and mining of phosphate rock and lithium ore at the most upstream to the layout of terminal new energy battery products. At the same time, capacity projects such as lithium battery isolation film and copper foil are also planned. The project is planned to be invested in three phases. The first phase of the project promises to invest about 18.05 billion yuan, which will be completed before December 31, 2023; The committed investment of phase II of the project is about 33.65 billion yuan, which will be completed before December 31, 2025; The third phase of the project is planned to be completed by 2030. According to science and technology daily, Yuxi is rich in lithium (clay) resources. Referring to the data obtained from previous scientific research and exploration, the average grade of lithium ore in Central Yunnan is about 0.3%, up to 1.02%. According to relevant evaluation standards, the average grade of 0.2% is of economic mining value. Based on the prediction of xiaoshiqiao target area in Yuxi, the lithium oxide resource in Central Yunnan is predicted to be about 4.89 million tons, equivalent to 12.09 million tons of LCE.
Comments: lithium resources may be short for a long time, and the development and utilization of lithium resources in China will be accelerated again
(1) have resource endowment. According to USGS, China’s proven lithium reserves account for about 13.8% of the world, ranking fifth in the world after Bolivia, Chile, Argentina and the United States. The qiongjiagang lithium mine discovered this time is expected to become the third largest lithium mine in China after Bailong mountain in southern Xinjiang and methyl card in Western Sichuan, while the reserves of Yuxi lithium clay resources are more considerable or have economic mining value.
(2) demand driven. The demand for new energy is determined strongly. Battery plants and cathode material plants are actively expanding production, while the increment at the supply end is limited. The average price of SMM battery grade lithium carbonate has reached a historical high of 448000 yuan / ton. Under the resonance of supply and demand, the prosperity of lithium price is expected to continue.
(3) policy support. The Ministry of industry and information technology will comprehensively improve the guarantee capacity of key resources, strengthen communication with Qinghai, Sichuan, Jiangxi and other provinces and cities, coordinate and promote the acceleration of China’s lithium resource development, and China’s lithium resource development or sustainable development.
Tesla produced 1 million 4680 batteries in January, which may be beneficial to the improvement of the permeability of the ternary system
Event: Tesla announced on February 19 that its pilot plant in California has produced 1 million 4680 batteries, with an average yield of 92%.
Comments: the performance of 4680 battery is improved, while significantly reducing cost and increasing efficiency. Tesla said on battery day last September that compared with the 18650 and 2170 batteries previously used, the battery capacity of 4680 battery was increased by 5 times, the endurance capacity was increased by 16%, and the assembled cells were significantly reduced, which improved the space utilization and production efficiency. Moreover, the cost of battery per kWh decreased by 56%, and the cost of manufacturing and assembly decreased by 86%.
According to Tesla’s announcement at the shareholders’ meeting in October 2021, the company’s sales volume is expected to reach 20 million in 2030, and the supporting 4680 batteries will have considerable demand in the future. At the same time, the main advantages of 4680 are reflected in battery capacity, production cost and efficiency. Since the existing CTP and blade battery technology have considerable space utilization, it is expected that 4680 will be mainly used in ternary system or conducive to the improvement of the permeability of ternary system. It is recommended to pay continuous attention to the subject matter:
1) enterprises embedded in Tesla supply chain: Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) .
2) enterprises with deep cultivation of ternary system and integrated logic: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) .
3) enterprises with considerable capacity of lithium hydroxide: Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) .
Affected by the intensified situation in Ukraine and Russia, energy costs have risen sharply, and overseas aluminum enterprises have reduced production and stopped production on a large scale
Event: on February 19, hydro aluminum officially announced that one of the four production lines of albras aluminum plant in Brazil was closed due to internal power distribution failure. It is reported that the power distribution failure occurred in an electrolytic cell. The affected production line has an annual output of 110000 tons of electrolytic aluminum, accounting for 24% of the plant’s total capacity of 460000 tons. According to SMM, at present, the total overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity has reached 984800 tons, and the overseas electrolytic aluminum production in 2021 was 38.79 million tons.
Comments: according to the customs website, China imported 1.573 million tons of electrolytic aluminum in 2021. Considering the continuous limited capacity and high price of overseas electrolytic aluminum, the import volume may be limited; Although the impact of the Baise epidemic in China is suspended, it still takes time to release production capacity. The potential risk of production reduction superimposed on the Winter Olympics and dual control of energy consumption still exists, supporting China’s electrolytic aluminum price to maintain a high price in the short term.
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) continue to pay attention to the supply of lithium resources, and the resource side is still the focus of the industrial chain layout
Event: according to the public questions and answers of investors, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) plans to ensure the supply of lithium resources through long-term association, investment cooperation, recycling and self mining. In terms of recovery, the recovery rate of lithium has exceeded 90%, and lithium recovery has played a certain role in supply guarantee; In addition to previous overseas investment and cooperation, the company also invested in lithium resources in Yichun and other places to mine lithium minerals by itself. In addition, the company has a layout in most links of the supply chain (including equity participation). For companies with a high proportion of new shares listed in the supply chain in the future, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) said that they value long-term real partners, which can overcome difficulties regardless of the market, work together for win-win results and promote the stable and sustainable development of the industry.
Comments: the resource side is still the focus of industrial chain layout. Taking Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) as an example, it has laid out Sichuan spodumene and Jiangxi mica in China, and strengthened the supply of resources by recycling key raw materials such as lithium, cobalt and nickel. (1) Sichuan, following the signing of strategic cooperation agreement with Sichuan’s energy investment, according to its official account, the recent Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) subsidiary Sichuan new energy resources limited and Ganzi investment group, Yibin Sanjiang Huida company and Sichuan Tianfu mineral company signed a joint venture agreement in Chengdu to jointly accelerate the exploration and development of lithium resources in Sichuan province and increase the supply of lithium resources. (2) In Jiangxi, in July 2021, the company has invested 13.5 billion yuan to build a new lithium battery production and manufacturing base project in Yichun, Jiangxi. At the same time, it is announced that at the beginning of 2022, it plans to jointly build a 50000 ton lithium carbonate production capacity project with Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) and a 100000 ton lithium carbonate smelting capacity project with Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) in Yichun. (3) In terms of recycling, according to SMM, the total amount of waste batteries treated by Ningde Bangpu, a wholly-owned subsidiary, exceeds 120000 tons / year, and the production capacity of precursor materials is about 40000 tons / year. In addition, it is proposed to invest a total of about 32 billion yuan to promote the Bangpu integrated new energy industry project.
Risk warning: demand is lower than expected, supply release is higher than expected, etc
