Key points of this week:
A shares rose this week, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3490.76, with a weekly change of + 0.80%. The weekly change of the food and beverage sector was + 2.97%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.17 percentage points, ranking sixth in the Shenwan industry classification.
This week, the food and beverage sectors rose from high to low: beer (+6.46%), other alcoholic beverages (+3.78%), soft drinks (+3.60%), Baijiu (+3.53%), flavouring fermented products (+1.95%), dairy products (+1.88%), health products (-0.13%), snack foods (-0.37%), meat products (-1.90%), prefabricated products (-2.93%).
[Baijiu]: Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) management adjustment landing, Huarun stock seed group, brand wine enterprises to add vitality Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) management personnel settled, market operation is good. After this adjustment, Mr. Zeng Congqin, the chairman of the company, also serves as the chairman of the group company, and the management will be more centralized; Mr. Zou Tao recommended to be promoted to the general manager of the group company, which is expected to continue to promote the reform of the company's management and marketing at the group level; Mr. Jiang Wenge was elected as the vice chairman and appointed the general manager. He has served in the company for many years and is familiar with the company's operation. The new leadership is promoted internally, which is conducive to the strategic continuity of the company, continue to promote marketing reform and strengthen Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) core competitiveness.
China Resources war investment plans to take a stake in golden seed group (according to wind, it directly holds 27.1% of Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co.Ltd(600199) equity, which is the controlling shareholder), adding vitality to the brand liquor enterprises. This week, golden seed group plans to introduce an important strategic shareholder, China Resources war investment, and Fuyang investment, the original sole shareholder, will transfer 49% of its equity. Since 2018, Huarun has been a shareholder in Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) and Jingzhi baijiu. It shows that the Baijiu road has great attraction. At the same time, with Huarun's strength, Fen Liquor has striving to achieve leapfrog growth. Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co.Ltd(600199) it is also expected to re sort out the company's strategy, brand products and channels with the blessing of China Resources, and activate the brand with the great opportunity of Hui liquor upgrading.
This week we visited some distributors and terminals in Zhejiang and Henan. Although the terminal mobile sales were slightly dull, the channel still has confidence. We think the Baijiu industry has strong toughness and long-term growth. The current market is expected to be sluggish. It brings better long-term investment opportunities. It mainly recommends five high-end Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) and Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) and Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) .
[beer]: high-end new products are stacked, and the price band continues to rise.
During the Spring Festival of the year of the tiger, the competition for high-end beer industry has been upgraded and accelerated again, and the upward movement of price band has become the most obvious signal. Following the launch of high-end beer "Li" by China Resources beer, recently Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) and Budweiser beer also launched high-end beer with a price of 1000 yuan. Due to the rising cost of Wusu Beer, the price of 620ml red Wusu Beer will be increased from February 1, 2022. China Resources will launch a new high-end product, whole wheat pure Sheng, in 2022. The current off-season price increase strategy will help to form a new price system before the peak season next year. From the perspective of fundamentals, maintain the first judgment of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) and China Resources beer. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) potential reform opportunities.
[condiment]: the short-term cost rises, and the price increase is gradually transmitted.
At present, the condiment sector is basically stable, the moving sales remain normal, and the inventory is in a reasonable range. It is expected that the upward pressure on soybean prices will continue in the short term, but it is still expected that {603} the upward pressure on soybean prices will continue to be caused by {603} enterprises, especially {603} in the short term. At the current time point, the market is undergoing valuation adjustment, with a large correction range of condiments, and the share prices of some enterprises have returned to the level before the price increase last year. At the same time, in terms of fundamentals, it is expected that the income and profit elasticity of some condiments will increase under the low base from Q2 this year. It is suggested to layout condiments on a bargain hunting basis. Considering that the market has experienced a certain correction, the Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) with relatively high certainty and elasticity is recommended at present.
[dairy products]: Winter Olympics marketing fever, taking advantage of the situation to strengthen brand strength.
The Beijing Winter Olympic Games is not only a sports event attracting global attention, but also a competition among brands to seize the stage. Dairy enterprises such as Yili, Feihe, Mengniu and JUNLEBAO compete for the marketing of the Winter Olympic Games. Su Yiming and Gu ailing, spokesmen signed by Yili and Mengniu respectively, won the gold medal for the Chinese team. Wang Meng, a close friend of Feihe brand, rushed to hot search with wonderful explanations. JUNLEBAO has become "China's official dairy partner of ice and snow". The epidemic deepened consumers' demand for milk, and the overall dynamic sales basically achieved the goal of a good start. We believe that although the overall supply and demand of raw milk was tight in 22 years, the year-on-year growth slowed down, the cost pressure of dairy enterprises weakened, and the slowing competition will accelerate the release of profits. The dairy industry focuses on Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Mengniu Dairy, China flying crane, New Hope Dairy Co.Ltd(002946) .
[quick frozen food]: the Spring Festival is celebrated in situ, and there is a strong demand for prefabricated vegetables & frozen baking.
During the Spring Festival, many governments launched local new year initiatives to further tap the needs of residents, improve the consumption habits of C-end consumers and the business strategy of b-end catering enterprises. After the festival, the upsurge of prefabricated vegetables has not weakened, and the supply chain has also ushered in sustainable development. With the improvement of the demand for convenient and fast meal preparation, the prosperity of industrialized food products such as prefabricated dishes and frozen baking is better, focusing on Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) .
Baijiu channel dynamics
[ Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) ]: this week, Feitian rated 3170-3180 for the whole box (the same month on month), and 2780-2790 yuan for the bulk bottle (the same month on month + 30 yuan). At present, 25% of the Spring Festival payment collection has been completed. At present, the quota in February is basically in place, and the dynamic sales performance is good. It is expected to start the payment collection in March at the end of February. At present, a 22-year contract has not been signed.
[ Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) ]: the price of this week's puwu is 970-980 yuan (month on month + 10 yuan). The inventory of the Spring Festival is fully digested. Recently, the price began to rise gradually with the decline of inventory. At present, 40% of the payment collection progress (according to the actual dynamic sales volume in 21 years) has been generally completed, and the delivery progress is about 40%. The dynamic sales in the Spring Festival has performed well. The expected volume has a single digit increase compared with the Spring Festival in 21 years, and the channel inventory is within 20 days.
[ Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) ]: this week, the rated price of Guojiao is 920-930 yuan (the same month on month). The first quarter of the Spring Festival in 2022 had a good start, and the unplanned proportion of payment collection has not been enforced. The average payment collection is 40-50%, the comprehensive cost is 910-920, and the delivery progress is 30% - 40%. After the price increase, the delivery rhythm is controlled. At present, the channel inventory is 20-30 days.
[ Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) ]: this week, the M6 + rating is about 650 yuan high (the same month on month), the M3 crystal bottle is 405-415 yuan low (the same month on month), the height is about 460 yuan (the same month on month), the sky blue is 230 yuan low, the height is 305 yuan, the sea blue is 120 yuan low and the height is 140 yuan. The dealer has completed the payment collection in the peak season of Spring Festival in 2022. At present, the average progress of payment collection is 40-50%, the delivery is close to 40%, and the inventory is about 1.5 months.
[Jiannanchun]: the price of crystal sword this week is 395 yuan (month on month - 5 yuan). The restriction of large-scale banquets in some areas during the Spring Festival has a phased impact on Jiannanchun's dynamic sales. It is expected that the banquets market will be replenished with the epidemic control, and the channel inventory will maintain a healthy level for about two months.
[ Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) ]: this week, zhenniang No. 8 is priced at 320 yuan (the same month on month), and the well platform is priced at 440 yuan (the same month on month). At present, the payment collection is 28% - 30% at a good start. After full delivery, the channel inventory is within 2 months, and the dynamic sales are stable during the Spring Festival.
[ Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) ]: this week, the new fourth opening price of Guoyuan is about 430 yuan, and the counter opening price is about 260 yuan, which is the same month on month. 22q1 Spring Festival peak season collection of about 40%, the average inventory level of about 1.5 months.
[ Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) ]: this week, the wholesale price of Qinghua 30 revival version is 830 yuan (the same month on month), the high wholesale price of Qinghua 20 is 370-380 yuan (the same month on month), and the wholesale price of Bofen whole box (12 bottles) is 520 yuan (the same month on month) + 20 yuan). The quota system is strictly adopted for Qinghua series and Bofen, the channel cost begins to shrink, and the delivery method is adjusted at the same time, and the inventory is maintained at a low level within one month. Fenjiu started the Spring Festival peak season in January. At present, it has completed about 30%, the delivery progress is about 30%, and the dynamic sales are good after arrival.
[ Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) ]: in this week, the bidding price is 810 yuan (month on month - 10 yuan), and the bidding price of hongtan is 290 yuan (month on month flat). At present, 22q1 payment collection has been started. At present, the proportion of payment collection is about 40%. The inventory in Hunan channel is about 1 month and that outside the province is about 2 months. The dynamic sales remain benign, and the sales volume of participation in the province has a double-digit growth.
The key recommendation: still maintain the first quarter Baijiu dominant judgement, the key recommendation: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) . Food stocks continue to be bullish: Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) , Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) .
Risk warning: the epidemic situation repeatedly affects consumption; The economy is in recession.
