In January, the decline of sales and new goods value of the top 100 real estate enterprises expanded, and the proportion of new goods value of central state-owned enterprises increased. In January 2022, the top 100 real estate enterprises realized a full-scale sales amount of about 584.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 40.7% compared with the same period last year, and the decline was 4.7 percentage points higher than that in December 2021; The sales threshold of real estate enterprises at all echelons decreased significantly, and the top 3 real estate enterprises decreased the most. The amount of newly added land value in January was the top 100. The newly added land value of real estate enterprises totaled 275.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of – 56.1%, a decrease of 31.9 percentage points compared with December 2021, and the decline was further expanded. Among them, the proportion of newly added value of central enterprises, local state-owned enterprises and private enterprises in January was 13.0% / 34.1% / 52.9% respectively, compared with -9.0pct / + 8.0pct / + 1.0pct in 2021. The spontaneous recovery of the market still needs time, and it is expected that the sales in February will continue to be in the downward channel.
In January, the transaction area of new housing market and second-hand housing market in key cities decreased significantly year-on-year, with an increase over the previous month. In January, the overall transaction area of first-hand houses decreased by 61.8% year-on-year, an increase of 32.8 percentage points over the previous month. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of transaction area of first tier (4 cities), second tier (17 cities) and third tier (30 cities) in January was – 55.8% / – 56.9% / – 70.8% respectively, compared with – 33.1pct / – 34.9pct / – 28.8pct respectively last month. In terms of second-hand housing, the transaction area of 13 cities we tracked decreased by 62.3% year-on-year, an increase of 19.6 percentage points over the previous month.
In January, the financing scale of real estate enterprises decreased month on month, and the financing cost decreased. (1) The refinancing scale of Hong Kong stocks increased to 6.62 billion yuan from 5.81 billion yuan last month. (2) The scale of domestic debt financing decreased by 12.0% to 49.38 billion yuan month on month, and the scale of overseas debt financing increased by 200.2% to 14.54 billion yuan month on month. (3) Financing costs are down. In January, the issuing interest rates of domestic corporate bonds, short-term financing, medium-term notes, directional instruments and asset-backed bonds of real estate enterprises were 3.7%, 3.1%, 3.3%, 4.1% and 3.5% respectively. The issuing interest rate of overseas bonds was 6.6%, and the overall interest rate decreased month on month. (4) The scale of trust financing decreased month on month. In the month, 157 real estate trust products were established, raising 10.89 billion yuan, down 60.2% month on month. (5) The tide of rating downgrades continued, and a total of 18 mainstream real estate enterprises’ credit ratings or prospects were downgraded 26 times.
We reiterate our view that 2022q1 is the best configuration window for the real estate and property management sector. There will be an obvious situation that the company alpha is more important than the industry beta in the market performance, and some high-quality companies will stand out. Among them, the real estate development sector mainly promotes the real estate enterprises with high credit or outstanding commercial operation ability, and the real estate enterprises with fruitful diversified transformation also deserve attention. A shares recommended by the developer: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Tianjin Guangyu Development Co.Ltd(000537) , Shanghai Wanye Enterprises Co.Ltd(600641) ; Hong Kong stocks: China overseas development, China Resources Land, Longhu group and Xuhui holding group. Property management recommendations include a shares: China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) ; Hong Kong stocks: Country Garden service, poly property, Xuhui Yongsheng service, China Resources Vientiane life. Green City Management Holdings is recommended by the agent construction standard.
Risk tip: the decline of industry sales exceeded expectations; Industry financing repair is not expected.
