Photovoltaic industry chain price tracking
Silicon material: single crystal compact material 240-245 yuan / kg [+ 3%] (change from the previous month, the same below). With the release of downstream production capacity, the demand for silicon material will still increase, but there is also a certain pressure on the transmission of silicon material price rise to the downstream, and the buyer and the seller are still in the game.
Silicon wafer: the quotation of single crystal M6 silicon wafer is 5.30-5.35 yuan / piece [+ 3%], M10 silicon wafer is 6.40-6.46 yuan / piece [+ 4%], and G12 silicon wafer is 8.55 yuan / piece [+ 4%]. The quotation of monocrystalline silicon wafer continues to rise, but the actual transaction price range of the market has not changed significantly. Benefiting from the increased demand for silicon wafers at the downstream battery end, although the overall output of monocrystalline silicon wafers in China increased month on month, the supply is still tight.
Cell: single crystal M6 cell 1.09-1.10 yuan / w [+ 1%], M10 cell 1.11-1.12 yuan / w [+ 2%], G12 cell 1.11-1.13 yuan / w [+ 4%]. Affected by the rise of upstream supply chain prices, the price of single crystal batteries in China rose slightly this week, and some downstream manufacturers who have prepared goods chose to postpone procurement and delivery. But on the whole, the demand for single crystal cells in China is still guaranteed, and the price is relatively stable.
Components: 182 components cost about 1.83-1.92 yuan / w [+ 0%], and 210 components cost about 1.83-1.90 yuan / w [+ 0%]. At present, the prices in overseas regions are stable. Last year, delayed projects in China started one after another. Although the prices of upstream supply chain and some auxiliary materials rebounded, the component prices have not increased significantly due to terminal acceptance.
Estimated profit distribution of the whole industry chain
M6 single glass: silicon material cost 0.13 + silicon material gross profit 0.49 + silicon wafer non silicon cost 0.12 + silicon wafer gross profit 0.03 + battery wafer non silicon cost 0.20 + battery wafer gross profit 0.02 + component non silicon cost 0.66 + component gross profit -0.01 + VAT 0.21 = 1.85 (yuan / W);
M10 single glass: silicon material cost 0.13 + silicon material gross profit 0.48 + silicon wafer non silicon cost 0.12 + silicon wafer gross profit 0.03 + battery wafer non silicon cost 0.19 + battery wafer gross profit 0.06 + component non silicon cost 0.61 + component gross profit 0.03 + VAT 0.22 = 1.87 (yuan / W).
Price bidding, bid winning capacity and price tracking of wind power industry chain (incomplete statistics)
Bidding capacity: since the beginning of 2022, the bidding volume of wind turbines has been 9.17gw (land wind 8.27gw + sea wind 0.90gw), including 3112mw contributed by Huaneng Group, 2377mw contributed by Datang Group, 680mw contributed by China Resources Power, Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) 498mw and 2499mw contributed by other enterprises.
Bid winning capacity: since the beginning of 2022, the fixed amount of wind turbine is 3.59gw. Sany Heavy energy, vision energy and Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) the top three manufacturers of bid winning capacity have won the bid of 1009mw, 954mw and 502mw respectively, accounting for 69% of the total bid winning capacity.
Average bid winning price of wind turbine: since the beginning of 2021, the average price of open bidding of wind turbine has generally decreased. Since the parity of onshore wind power, the cost reduction and efficiency increase brought by the large-scale wind turbine have been significant. In February 2022, the average bid winning price of onshore wind turbine (excluding tower) was 2295 yuan / kW, which rebounded compared with January.
Data tracking of generation side and sales side
In 2021, 47.6gw of wind power (30.7gw land wind + 16.9gw sea wind) and 53.0gw of photovoltaic power (23.8gw centralized + 29.2gw distributed) will be added in China. By the end of December 2021, the national installed power generation capacity was 2376.9gw, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. Among them, the installed capacity of wind power was 328.5gw, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%; Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) the installed capacity of power generation was 306.6gw, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%.
Risk tips
Risk of policy change; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The consumption of new energy is less than expected.
