Big home: the main line of valuation repair continues, and the leader bucks the trend to increase market share. On February 18, the national development and Reform Commission and other departments jointly issued the notice on printing and Distributing Several Policies to promote the steady growth of industrial economy and several policies on promoting the recovery and development of difficult industries in the field of service industry, which has stronger pertinence and stronger support for Industry and service industry. Heze lowered the payment proportion and loan interest rate of the first house, relaxed the real estate, brought benefits to the home industry chain, gradually improved the real estate margin, and the real estate related targets are expected to usher in further valuation and repair. Optimistic about leading enterprises, relying on their established brand and channel advantages, continue to improve market share and take the lead in benefiting. According to the real estate data released by the National Bureau of statistics in December, the completed area of residential houses in the whole year of 21 was 730.16 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 10.8%. Among them, the completed area of residential houses in December was 234.34 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. At the end of January, the central bank cut interest rates by 10bp. At present, market investors still maintain loose expectations for the central bank’s future monetary policy, and follow-up pay attention to whether social finance has warmed up. With the recovery of the prosperity of the real estate sector, the liquidity of the home sector in the post real estate cycle is expected to continue to improve.
It is suggested to pay attention to Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) customized leader with obvious multi-channel strategy and multi category advantages (2021 meets the expectation), pay attention to Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) promoting the packaging strategy to create the second growth curve, introduce Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co.Ltd(300616) Internet strategic investors, and Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) , Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) with prominent bulk advantages and enjoying category and channel dividends (2021q4 exceeds the expectation), etc, It is recommended to introduce war investment empowering Ekornes growth, the “three new” marketing reform to promote retail growth, the improvement of financial situation, the upward turning point of performance Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) and so on. The software sector recommends Minhua holdings, a leading software company that continues to rise in domestic and foreign sales and increases prices to absorb costs. It is recommended to pay attention to Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ; Recommend Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) to jointly promote Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) of Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) high equity incentive plan with a compound growth rate of 40% of net profit in 22-24 years; Recommend vertical integration within the supply chain and deeply bind Hhc Changzhou Corp(301061) of high growth customers. It is suggested to focus on the Loctek Ergonomic Technology Corp(300729) with the rapid growth of revenue of linear driven products and the continuous development of overseas e-commerce Amazon + independent stations. The wooden door department suggests paying attention to Jiangshan Oupai Door Industry Co.Ltd(603208) with continuous and large-scale projects and orderly production capacity, the hardware ceramic tile department is optimistic about Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) with expanding categories, farming channels and continuous realization of dividends, and Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.Ltd(003012) with national layout, retail force and performance inflection point. It is suggested that the electrical lighting sector should pay attention to the leading channel brands, no risk of cost impact, and there is sufficient room for the expansion of category channels Gongniu Group Co.Ltd(603195) ; It is suggested to pay attention to the steady growth of online business licenses, determine the inflection point of offline retail, and further improve the market share of lighting space Opple Lighting Co.Ltd(603515) .
FMCG: with the rise of national tide and personal protection, e-commerce promotion demand is large. In December, the retail sales of cultural and office supplies reached 41.7 billion yuan, an increase of 7.4% year-on-year, which was mainly affected by the repeated epidemic in many places, and the growth rate on the demand side slowed down. It is suggested to pay attention to Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) with strong traditional barriers, high volume of kelip and steady expansion of Jiumu stores. We believe that the influence of double reduction is diminishing, and the company is strong and alpha is prominent; Industry wood pulp fell, gross profit gradually repaired C&S Paper Co.Ltd(002511) ; Recommend the all cotton life leader Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) with two wheel drive of consumer medicine and obvious omni-channel advantages; Recommend the implementation of the incentive plan, deeply bind the management, highlight the long-term development confidence in the performance evaluation objectives, and expand the channels steadily.
New type of tobacco: the new type of tobacco regulatory policy has been implemented, and attention has been paid to the value of the layout of the new type of tobacco industry chain. The Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) new tobacco industry chain layout is further increased, extending from the horizontal road to the low temperature tobacco field, extending vertically to the upstream flavor and fragrance, and the synergy effect of the whole industry is enhanced. Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) Jinjia Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) technology, a wholly-owned subsidiary, plans to increase the capital of Jiaju electronics by 23.8 million yuan. After the transaction is completed, it will hold 40% equity of Jiaju electronics. The existing business of Jiaju electronics includes HNB herbal cigarette bombs, cigarette sets and automatic production equipment of cigarette bombs. This capital increase will help Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) improve the overall layout of the new tobacco industry chain, quickly cut into relevant markets, and have synergistic and complementary effects with the existing businesses of Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) new tobacco sector. Philip Morris International (PMI) achieved a revenue of US $31.41 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, including an operating profit of US $12.98 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 11.2%. The global cigarette market grew steadily. The company built the second growth curve with HNB products. Smore is expected to realize profit and comprehensive income of RMB 5.024-5.553 billion in the 21st year, with a year-on-year increase of 109.3% – 131.4%; The adjusted net profit was 5.180-5.709 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.0% – 46.6%. China’s policy: on December 2, 2001, the state tobacco monopoly administration studied and drafted the measures for the administration of e-cigarettes (Draft for comments). The new tobacco policy broke the ice and reduced the risk of “one size fits all” in the industry. We believe that with the increase of industry access threshold, enterprises with strong R & D capacity and outstanding manufacturing capacity will still be in an advantageous position. The era of savage growth of e-cigarettes has ended and entered the era of license sector, which is conducive to the optimization of the competition pattern of the industry and the further improvement of the concentration. Overseas policy: on October 13, 2001, two cigarette oils and one cigarette set of British American Tobacco vusesolo series became the first electronic cigarette product to pass the PMTA in the United States, and the market expectation is optimistic. We believe that the new type of tobacco is still a long-term high-quality track. The penetration rate of e-cigarettes in the United States has been more than 50%, while that in China is only 1% ~ 2%. There is huge room for the scale of e-cigarette market in the future. E-cigarette brands continue to expand globally. In the long run, the trend of e-cigarette is unstoppable. Smore international, which has advanced ceramic atomization technology, increased global share and orderly production capacity, is recommended. It is recommended to pay attention to the layout of new tobacco, underestimated Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) and so on.
Papermaking: the pulp price fluctuated upward, and the leading profit in the traditional peak season improved. As of February 18, the prices of white cardboard, double copper paper, double offset paper, box board paper and corrugated paper were 6195, 5380, 5825, 4928 and 3921.88 yuan / ton, with a change of 2.9%, 0%, 2.2%, 0.3% and 0.1% on a weekly basis. Wood pulp: in terms of cultural paper, the logistics in some regions is affected, and the dealers’ transactions are mainly just needed, and most of the operators are wait-and-see; Downstream printing plants are cautious in preparing goods, the overall order volume is relatively stable, and the inventory pressure remains. White cardboard: repeated outbreaks in many places have led to limited local logistics, and the market trading situation is relatively flat. The price increase letter is conducive to forming partial support for market confidence. Some paper production lines in the industry are planned to be overhauled, and there is a slight pressure on the supply side; The downstream goods preparation is cautious, and the boom recovery on the demand side is not obvious. Waste paper: due to the preferential price policies implemented by the large-scale paper mills in the early stage, the paper price has returned to the low level, and the price of raw materials still maintains the upward trend, which supports the price of finished paper. The downstream packaging factory replenished the inventory appropriately, and the trading situation improved. The first quarter entered the traditional peak season of the paper industry. After the phased adjustment and destocking of the downstream base paper market, there was room for improvement in the operating rate of some downstream base paper in the first quarter, and the demand for pulp collection may return to temperature slowly, supporting the mentality of the pulp Market. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading paper enterprises Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) with both volume and price of the main business and growth space; The industry is well integrated, Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) with the continuation of the price increase trend of white card and Shanying International Holdings Co.Ltd(600567) with the leading layout of foreign waste and obvious advantages of industrial chain integration.
Packaging: the influence of raw materials will gradually weaken, and the performance will meet the inflection point upward. In the metal packaging sector, the canning rate of beer has gradually increased, the upgrading of high-end packaging is obvious, and the supply and demand pattern is expected to improve, which will drive the significant increase of capacity utilization. It is suggested to pay attention to Org Technology Co.Ltd(002701) ; In the paper packaging sector, with the gradual production of broad-leaved pulp capacity in the second half of the year, the price of wood pulp is easy to fall but difficult to rise, which drives the price of packaging paper raw materials to fall. At the same time, the price raising strategy is effectively implemented. It is suggested to pay attention to Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) benefiting from 5g machine replacement and the continuous growth of consumer electronics. For the composite plastic temsector block, it is recommended to pay attention to the high-quality structure of downstream customers and deeply bind Shanghai Ailu Package Co.Ltd(301062) with Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) and other cheese growth tracks. Shanghai Baosteel Packaging Co.Ltd(601968) the incentive plan is issued. The exercise price of the stock options granted is 9.53 yuan / share, and the incentive objects granted for the first time are no more than 109. The performance evaluation target is from 2022 to 2024, in which the compound growth rate of operating income in 2024 compared with 2020 is no less than 17.43%, and the compound growth rate of total deducted non profits in 2024 compared with 2020 is no less than 16.3%.
Outdoor sports: in the golden age of national fashion clothing, the trend of domestic products leading to high-end is obvious. Domestic brands have risen rapidly, and the market share of brands has increased steadily. Recommend Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) with high customer resource barriers, the customer’s order demand and order forecast are still strong, the company’s factory in northern Vietnam operates normally, all factories fully guarantee order delivery, and all production plans are basically carried out in accordance with the established objectives; Recommend Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) with outstanding advantages of vertical integration, with steady growth in performance; It is suggested that Li Ning, who pays attention to channel optimization, Anta sports, which is operated by multiple brands, build competition equipment for 12 Chinese national teams of the 24th Beijing Winter Olympic Games. The brand influence of “champion dragon suit” series continues to expand under the Winter Olympic marketing. The product diversification is divided into three brand groups: professional sports, fashion sports and outdoor sports. Driven by the two wheels of brand and channel, the performance continues to grow.
Risk tip: real estate regulation tightened; Price fluctuation of raw materials; The epidemic situation has been repeated outside China.
