The overall market rose, with the semiconductor index rising 2.92%.
Last week (2022 / 02 / 14-2022 / 02 / 18), the market rose as a whole, and the semiconductor index rose 2.92%. Among them: semiconductor design + 1.8%, semiconductor manufacturing – 0.7%, semiconductor packaging + 0.5%, semiconductor material + 1.1%, semiconductor equipment + 7.6%, power semiconductor + 3.4%. Last week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 0.57%, while the Taiwan Semiconductor Index fell by 1.86%. As of last week (February 18, 2022), the total market value of A-share semiconductor company had reached 2750.6 billion yuan, a month on month increase of + 1.94%, corresponding to 62 times of the overall PE in 2022 (Note: PE is the statistical data according to Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) Figure 5).
Plate tracking: capex guidelines for overseas equipment and large manufacturers are optimistic
1) equipment: the overall revenue of 21q4, the leader of overseas equipment, recorded a year-on-year increase of nearly 20%, and the profit increased by more than 30%, showing the improvement of profitability under the high boom of the industry. Affected by seasonal factors, the 22q1 guidance revenue and gross profit margin given by various companies have weakened month on month. All companies are optimistic about the equipment development support of the semiconductor industry in 22 and 23 years.
2) manufacturing: the revenue and gross profit margin of 21q4 overseas foundry leader continued to increase month on month. With regard to the 22q1 guideline, in addition to stabilizing Mao, TSMC and liandian have given the expectation of continuous growth in revenue month on month, and reported a higher than expected 22-year capital expenditure target, showing the optimism of the wafer foundry industry about the demand in the next few years.
3) sealing and testing: the net profit of riyueyue and Ankao 21q4 recorded a high-speed growth month on month, which was much higher than the growth of revenue, highlighting the further improvement of the profitability of the sealing and testing link. Looking forward to 22q1, the revenue expectations of the two companies are slightly lower month on month, and the gross profit margin is flat or slightly lower.
4) power: Infineon 21q4’s revenue increased by 20% year-on-year, but its net profit growth rate was as high as 79%, and its profitability was significantly improved. On a month on month basis, the revenue and gross profit margin of 21q4 increased month on month basis, while the net profit decreased slightly month on month basis. Infineon gave flat 22q1 revenue guidance, showing confidence in the continuation of the boom.
5) SOC: Q4 revenue of major overseas chip design manufacturers maintained positive growth month on month and year on year. In terms of sections (1) the demand in downstream areas such as mobile phones, Internet of things and automobiles maintained high growth, with Qualcomm Q4 up 30% year-on-year and + 15% month on month; Broadcom Q4 was + 15% year-on-year and 9% month on month. The gross profit margins of the two companies kept rising to more than 60%, and the revenue outlook of 22q1 kept growing, showing the company’s confidence that 5g will lead the continuous growth of downstream demand in the industry; (2) From the perspective of CPU / GPU sector, NVIDIA continued to shine. Its 21q4 revenue reached a record $7.643 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 53%, a month on month increase of + 8%, and its net profit reached $3 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 106%. It exceeded market expectations for 12 consecutive quarters, and its gross profit margin reached 65.41%; The revenue of AMD and Intel also maintained positive growth year-on-year; On the whole, CPU/GPU giants remain confident about the outlook for 2022, and remain optimistic about the demand for artificial intelligence, self driving cars and Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) technology in the future.
6) RF: there is differentiation in revenue growth between qorvo and skyworks, mainly because skywoks takes apple as its major customer and qorvo takes Android manufacturers as its major customers, and there is a difference in the time when customers release new models. In terms of skyworks, the mobile business was US $1.03 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of – 13% and + 11% month on month, mainly due to the release of new models in Q4 last year and Q3 this year; The revenue of Pan terminal business was US $480 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 46% and a month on month increase of + 23%, mainly due to the growth of Internet of things demand and the consolidation of newly acquired silicon labs business. In qorvo, the mobile product business revenue was US $850 million, a year-on-year increase of + 3% and a month on month increase of – 15%; The revenue from infrastructure and defense business was US $270 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 1% and a month on month increase of + 2%.
7) simulation and MCU: strong growth in industry and automobile. Q4 revenue of large overseas analog and MCU manufacturers maintained positive growth month on month and year on year, with a month on month growth of 4% – 15% and a year-on-year growth of 10% – 75%. The main driving force of its growth comes from industry and automobile. The 1q22 performance guidance is basically unchanged month on month, and the prosperity is basically maintained at the 4q21 level.
Investment suggestions: it is suggested to pay attention to Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) , Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) , Sg Micro Corp(300661) , Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) , Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , Hangzhou Lion Electronics Co.Ltd(605358) , National Silicon Industry Group Co.Ltd(688126) , Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) .
Risk tips: the demand is less than expected, the constraints of capacity bottlenecks, the technological progress of mainland manufacturers is less than expected, the Sino US trade friction is intensified, and the information used in the research report is not updated in time.
