Price rise + structural optimization + share increase, and the volume of China's diaphragm plants increased at the same time.
Looking forward to the next two years, the diaphragm is one of the few lithium battery materials that can enjoy the simultaneous increase of quantity and profit. (1) Volume: in the next two years, China's diaphragm factory will contribute nearly 90% of the industry's new production capacity, and the global share will continue to increase. In particular, the overseas market share is expected to increase significantly. It is expected that the diaphragm supply share of China's diaphragm factory CR3 in overseas battery factories will rise to 42% by 2023; (2) Profit: thanks to the spread of price rise under the tension of supply and demand, the optimization of product structure (the proportion of overseas / coating film is increased), the cost is reduced (online coating and production line efficiency are improved) driven by process upgrading, and the unit profit will continue to increase. Chinese diaphragm manufacturers will usher in both volume and profit.
Supply and demand pattern: it is expected that the tension between supply and demand will continue until at least 2023, and the price rise has gradually spread. Subject to the short-term tight supply and demand of key equipment and the long delivery cycle of equipment, it is expected that the tight supply and demand situation will continue until at least 2023, and 2022 is the year with the tightest supply and demand. Since 2021, the diaphragm factories have raised the prices of some small and medium-sized customers successively. We expect that the rising tide of diaphragm prices in China will further spread in 2022, and the prices will remain high until 2024.
Looking overseas: 2022-2023 is an important window period for the overseas expansion of China's diaphragm factory. Due to higher profitability, overseas business is the key to improve the profitability of China diaphragm factory. Compared with overseas diaphragm plants, Chinese diaphragm plants have significant advantages in scale, cost and financing convenience. It is estimated that the new capacity of Chinese diaphragm plants will account for nearly 90% of the new capacity of the whole industry from 2022 to 2023. In the period of tight supply and demand in the industry, Chinese diaphragm factory is expected to realize rapid expansion of overseas business by virtue of its capacity advantage. We expect that the global share of Cr3 of Chinese diaphragm factory will increase to 60% and the diaphragm supply share of overseas battery factory will increase to 42% in 2023.
Investment suggestions:
(1) Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) : the expansion of production far exceeds that of the same industry, and the global competitiveness is continuously strengthened.
Enjie responded to the equipment supply bottleneck by locking the capacity of the steel making Institute, importing other suppliers and self built equipment platform. It is estimated that the new capacity will account for 38% and 42% of the whole industry in 2022-2023. It is estimated that the shipment volume of Enjie wet diaphragm in 2022-2023 will be 5.5/7.8 billion square meters, with a year-on-year increase of + 79% / + 43%, and the corresponding global share is expected to increase to more than 40%. Under neutral expectation, the net profit of Enjie wet diaphragm from 2022 to 2023 is 0.98/1.03 yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 5.17/7.83 billion yuan.
(2) Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) : product structure optimization + process improvement and cost reduction are continuously promoted, and the price rise drives greater profit flexibility.
With the increase of overseas / coated film proportion and continuous improvement of process, the inflection point of Xingyuan's profit in 2021 has been established, and the operating profit of single level in 2021q4 is expected to rise to 0.37 yuan. It is estimated that the shipment volume of Xingyuan from 2022 to 2023 will be 1.7 billion square meters, with a year-on-year increase of + 55% / + 59%. Under the neutral expectation, the single average net profit of Xingyuan from 2022 to 2023 is 0.42/0.48 yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 700 / 1.27 billion yuan.
Risk tips
The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, the new production increase of relevant manufacturers is lower than expected, and the price rise of diaphragm is lower than expected.
