1. China's energy storage market may usher in rapid growth. From 2021 to 2023cagr is expected to reach 106.1%, mainly driven by the power generation side.
Economy: the business model of power grid frequency modulation and industrial and commercial energy storage has been run through, and the power generation side is still mainly driven by policies
A) power generation side: after distribution and storage, the overall IRR of light + storage is reduced to 6.33% by reducing light abandonment + peak shaving services, which is lower than 8.48% of photovoltaic power generation. The economy is not obvious. Therefore, it is mainly driven by policies at this stage.
B) grid side: the economy of frequency modulation service is prominent. Ideally, its IRR is about 18%. Power grid frequency modulation service has high requirements for performance, and the degree of market-oriented transaction is high in some regions (the winning order of frequency modulation instruction is affected by performance indicators). In the future, the market-oriented transaction mode is expected to be popularized throughout the country.
C) industrial and commercial energy storage: in terms of photovoltaic distribution and storage, the hourly power cost of the integrated optical storage system is about 0.32 yuan, slightly higher than that of photovoltaic power generation only 0.27 yuan. However, industrial and commercial enterprises have the demand for standby power supply to ensure production under the current background of double carbon and power limitation, so they are willing to configure energy storage for photovoltaic. In terms of peak shaving and valley filling power station, when the price difference between peak and valley is greater than 0.7 yuan / kWh, the cost can be recovered within the life cycle. Market scale: a) power generation side: at the end of the 21st century, 21 provinces defined that the proportion of regulated storage allocation in 22 and 23 years was about 10%; The average storage time is 2H; It is estimated that the proportion of distribution and storage will increase year by year, and the permeability of stock distribution and storage will increase from 1% to 5%. It is estimated that the total installed capacity of new energy storage in 22-25 years will be 12.64, 27.99, 46.38, 100.79gwh and 21-25cagr110 8%。
B) grid side: frequency modulation has become the main growth point of energy storage at the grid side. It is expected that the frequency modulation permeability will increase from 15% to 70% year by year, the peak shaving permeability will increase from 0.025% to 0.04% year by year, and the energy storage installed capacity is expected to be 1.67, 2.63, 3.46 and 3.82gwh in 22-25 years.
C) industry and Commerce: optical storage integration: with the exposure of economy and the growth of standby power demand, the distribution and storage penetration rate is expected to increase from 1.5% to 4.5% year by year in 22-25 years, the stock penetration rate is expected to increase from 0.08% to 1% year by year, and the new installed capacity is expected to be 0.11, 0.31, 0.59 and 1.19gwh. Industrial and commercial peak shaving and valley filling: due to its prominent economy, the permeability is expected to increase from 0.006% to 0.22% year by year, and the new installed capacity in 22-25 years is 0.31, 0.87, 0.96 and 1.49gwh. d) 5g base station application: it is estimated that the installed capacity in 22-25 years will be 8.84, 8.93, 6.27 and 5.60gwh. In total, China's total installed capacity (excluding 5g) from 2022 to 2025 is 13.05, 29.11, 47.92 and 103.46gwh respectively, and cagr104.00 from 21 to 25 years 5%。
2. The U.S. energy storage market will grow rapidly in the future, with joint efforts before and after the table, 2021-2025cagr89 2%
Economy: the market-oriented electricity transaction + household electricity price is high, and the economy before and after the meter in the United States has run through
A) before the table: the economy of distribution and storage of photovoltaic power station is prominent. Irr18 can be achieved in the whole life cycle under the condition of 200 days of daily operation 76%。 The price difference between peak and valley in the United States is obvious, and the larger energy storage configuration can give full play to its role of peak and valley cutting and peak and valley arbitrage. Therefore, the proportion of distribution and storage in the United States often reaches 100%, and its charging time is mostly 2-4 hours.
B) after the table: in terms of household energy storage, the configuration mode of photovoltaic + energy storage can save 30% of power costs for ordinary families in a 25 year cycle. In terms of industrial and commercial energy storage, the lcoe of its photovoltaic + energy storage mode is about US $0.31, which is lower than its reference on grid price, which means that the cost of spontaneous self-use power is lower than that of purchasing power from the power grid. Even if there is excess power on the grid, it can be sold at a premium.
Market scale: a) before the table: due to the outstanding economy of energy storage time in the United States, the energy storage permeability is expected to increase from 40% to 70% year by year; With 100% power ratio, the installed penetration rate of stock increases from 1% to 15% year by year. It is estimated that the installed capacity before the 22-25 year table will be 18.36, 40.26, 61.56 and 115.92gwh, and cagr88.88 in 21-25 years 9%。
B) after the table: due to the prominent economy, the penetration rate of household energy storage is expected to increase from 20% to 70% year by year, and cagr87 in 21-25 years 7%。 The industrial and commercial energy storage permeability is expected to increase from 18% to 30% year by year, and cagr96 in 21-25 years 3%。 Then the installed capacity after the 22-25 year table is 3.26, 6.59, 9.84 and 20.50gwh, and the cagr91 in 21-25 years 7%。 The total installed capacity from 2022 to 2025 is 21.62, 46.85, 71.40 and 136.42gwh, of which cagr89.9 from 2021 to 2025 3%。
3. Driven by European and Australian policies and economy, the global energy storage market is growing rapidly. Europe: due to the implementation of preferential energy storage policies in various countries, especially household subsidies, the installed capacity of energy storage is expected to reach 7.51, 14.34, 25.05 and 54.07 GWH respectively from 2022 to 2025, and cagr103 from 21 to 23 21%。 Australia: large projects in front of the balance sheet continue to land, and the high electricity price behind the balance sheet promotes the rapid increase of installed capacity. It is estimated that the installed capacity will reach 6.18, 12.13, 19.56 and 34.73 GWH in 22-25 years, and cagr116 in 21-23 years 2%。 Global: it is estimated that the installed capacity of global energy storage will reach 52.58, 112.67, 180.33 and 361.56 GWH from 2022 to 2025, and cagr112.00 from 21 to 23 8%。
4. Business model: Overseas profitability is relatively higher, and the profit after the balance sheet is expected to be higher than that before the balance sheet
The affordability of overseas markets for prices is generally higher than that of China: the growth of overseas installed capacity is driven by its own economic superiority, while China mainly relies on policy enforcement. The motivation of installing energy storage in the back meter market is to reduce costs, and the economic requirements are lower than those in the front meter Market of commercial operation. Users are willing to allocate energy storage on the premise of saving costs; In addition, the electricity price is higher than the on grid price, which further improves the economy of post balance sheet distribution and storage, and the profit space of upstream enterprises is higher than that of pre balance sheet market.
6. Investment suggestions: maintain high growth rate in the downstream market, and recommend Inverter Companies with high reserves [ Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) ], [ Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) ], [ Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ], [ Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) ] (first coverage); Fire hydrants [ Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) ] in the field of energy storage fire protection and [ Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) ] in which energy storage temperature control is expected to increase rapidly.
Risk tips: the risk of policy implementation falling short of expectations, the risk of equipment supply falling short of expectations, and the risk of rising raw material prices;
