Fundamentals: photovoltaic demand is high and prosperous, and the industrial chain production scheduling is good
In terms of short-term demand, there was strong demand at home and abroad in the first quarter, and the production scheduling of the industrial chain was good. At present, China's demand mainly comes from distributed photovoltaic. At the same time, the bidding volume of ground projects is large. From January to February, the central state-owned enterprises recruited 47gw. According to the production scheduling data of the industrial chain, since the beginning of 2022, the production scheduling of all links of the industrial chain has increased month by month. The output in March has reached a record high, with an annual output of more than 240gw.
The industry valuation level has high cost performance
Recently, there have been many adjustments in the photovoltaic sector. The CSI photovoltaic industry index fell by 20% in recent two months, while the CSI 300 index fell by 7% in the same period, and the industry oversold was obvious. At present, the PE valuation of photovoltaic main industry chain enterprises is basically less than 30 times in 2022 and about 20 times in 2023. The valuation of relevant auxiliary materials and other links is lower. Considering the high-quality fundamentals, the industry has a high configuration cost performance.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay active attention to the photovoltaic sector. From the demand side, photovoltaic demand is highly deterministic and continues to grow at a high level. From the perspective of industry profit, after the fluctuation in 2021, the profits of links other than silicon materials are mostly in the bottom recovery state. It is suggested to pay attention to the following links and companies:
Granular silicon (0-1 breakthrough): Poly GCL;
Silicon wafer (OEM mode & new forces): Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) , Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) ;
Distributed (accelerated user development): Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) ;
Vajra line (pattern optimization): Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) , Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) , Henan Hengxing Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002132) ;
Frame (increased concentration & little impact on raw material price): Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co.Ltd(003038) ;
Adhesive film (concentration improvement & particle price reduction profit repair): Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) , Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) ;
Components (silicon material repair): Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) ;
Inverter (concentration): Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) .
Risk tips:
The demand is less than expected, the progress of new technology is less than expected, and the industry competition is intensified.
