2m alliance occupies the leading position in the black sea container transportation market
In 2021, the container throughput of all countries in the Black Sea region (Ukraine, Russia, Romania, Georgia and Bulgaria) was 3.1 million TEU (including empty containers, excluding transit transportation), of which the heavy container throughput was 2.43 million TEU, accounting for 78.27%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.59%. In heavy containers, imports accounted for 56.53% and exports accounted for 43.47%. In 2021, Russia achieved the highest growth rate of 11.97% and Ukraine achieved an increase of 1.19%. From the perspective of shipping companies, in 2021, Maersk, mediterranean shipping, COSCO, Dafei shipping and Zim accounted for 25.51%, 21.29%, 10.90%, 8.35% and 7.74% of the turnover of heavy containers in the Black Sea respectively, accounting for 73.77% in total. Among them, 2m alliance Maersk and mediterranean shipping market share is 46.79%, handling 1.135 million TEU of heavy containers, always occupying a leading position;; The market share of COSCO Container Shipping and Da Fei ships of ocean union was 19.24%, handling 264000 TEU and 203000 TEU of heavy containers respectively, totaling 467000 TEU.
On February 15, the joint war committee designated some areas in the northern part of the Black Sea as high-risk areas and required the ship owner to notify the insurer before sailing to the Black Sea and Asian speed sea areas. The Japan Shipowners Association (JSA) has issued navigation recommendations to its members in Ukrainian and Russian waters. Compared with the aviation industry, airlines including KLM have stopped relevant services in Ukraine and ordered commercial aircraft to leave the country. Ukrainian exporters’ freight rates have risen slightly, and some shippers require prepayment for transportation to Ukraine. The freight of Ukrainian exporters increased by US $2-3 per ton; If the situation continues to escalate, the increase may rise to US $5-7 per ton.
The contradiction between supply and demand of centralized transportation may become more prominent, and the freight rate may have a nonlinear mutation
The global centralized transportation supply chain is always in a tight state and has no resistance to the impact of any event. From the historical impact of Suez Canal blockage, Shenzhen Yan Tian Port Holdings Co.Ltd(000088) suspension and other events, it has led to nonlinear mutation of freight rate. Although the container transportation in and out of the Black Sea is a relatively small trade, the continuous escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine may have a great impact on the global container supply chain and greatly delay the recovery speed of the global supply chain.
In terms of supply, 1) the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may lead to the confusion of shipping schedule, the increase of passive blank flights and the corresponding reduction of transport capacity supply; 2) Major liner companies may optimize and adjust trade routes, reduce liner trips into the Black Sea, and increase the average haul distance; 3) If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, Russia may attack it systems and other infrastructure, or cause a great blow to the global container supply chain, greatly delaying the recovery speed of the global supply chain. Compared with the notpetya cyber attack against Ukraine in 2017, Maersk, the world’s largest liner company, shut down its IT system for about two weeks, causing a total loss of about US $300 million. In terms of demand, the demand for residents’ material reserves in European countries may increase significantly, or the import volume from countries with long transportation distance will increase, driving the overall demand of tons of nautical miles. It is expected that the contradiction between supply and demand of subsequent centralized transportation may become more prominent, and the freight rate may have a nonlinear mutation.
Continue to maintain the “buy” ratings of Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) , OOCL international and Haifeng International.
