Core view
To a certain extent, the annual goods Festival can reflect the ability of each family to control planned campaigns. The key factors of the annual goods Festival are 1) goods: selection / storage ability (richness & supplier cooperation). 2) Logistics: the ability of warehouse allocation to undertake peak orders, and both of them will be affected by planned strategies. The strategic significance of this festival is not only to boost the short-term performance of Gmv in January. In the long run, the festival is a good opportunity to attract new users, especially new users in the sinking market. During the festival, urban residents return home and local residents have a demand for goods. The good performance of the festival will help to attract the purchase and retention of these users after the festival.
From the comprehensive results, only by comparing meituan's preference / buying more vegetables / shopping for vegetables in the new three regiments, we observed that meituan's preference has high attention and investment in the 2022 cargo Festival. Meituan benefited from the management combination of "headquarters pre planning + regional strong implementation", and the organization and strategy of the annual cargo Festival are highly rational. With "rich category selection / hoarding" + "good connection of warehouse network logistics", During the new year's festival, the performance was excellent, and the monthly single volume was improved month on month, which was better than that of other players. The new year's festival of buying more vegetables stays at the provincial level. The provincial general manager is responsible for the commodity logistics of the new year's festival. The overall strength, commodity richness and logistics performance stability are weaker than those of meituan. It mainly plays the new year's festival through large items such as drinks and drinks, which can also be reflected in large-scale planned campaigns to a certain extent, Meituan's organization and management mode of "unified management of headquarters + partial autonomy of regions + vertical lines" has more advantages than Duoduo's organization and management mode of "provincial autonomy" (Duoduo's autonomy power / scope is greater than meituan), which is convenient for planning in advance, concentrating on major events, and better resource concentration and organizational rationality. We expect that from the perspective of short-term performance, all platforms will benefit from the increase in the unit price of annual goods and passengers, which will increase Gmv in January (we expect an average ring increase of more than 25%), meituan's commodity richness is high, its single quantity or performance is better, and many large pieces account for a higher unit price or better. From the perspective of this year's delivery, the United States will continue to accumulate more power for the next year's delivery, or in the long run, for the future.
From the perspective of specific strategies, each family has invested more resources, and the overall strategic direction is similar, but the strength and focus are different. On the whole, the investment of the new three regiments is large and lasts for a long time, followed by panning vegetables, with more efforts and less efforts, while the prosperity is better than the refinement of activity design with rich historical experience. 1) In terms of page layout (drainage / activity presentation), each family has given a large flow exposure for the new year's goods Festival. Meituan and taocai have made great efforts in drainage. At the same time, banner and King Kong District are given, and Duoduo / Xingsheng are given one of the entrances respectively for drainage. The different presentation of the activity page is related to the activity strategies of each family. 2) In terms of commodities: ① in terms of commodity preferences, platforms mostly adopt the combination of price reduction and full reduction, but different platforms have different preference for price reduction or full reduction. In terms of commodity discounts, the horizontal comparison of commodity discounts on the new year's goods Festival shows that there is little difference among the other three companies except for the slightly higher prosperity, but meituan has the largest price reduction compared with its own historical prices and has strong support. On the full coupon reduction, the full coupon reduction is the most prosperous and lasts for a long time in terms of diversity. Xingsheng has many years of experience in the annual cargo Festival. This year, the full coupon reduction is refined for different sub categories. Among the new three groups, the types of full coupon reduction of Duoduo are the least, and the rotation duration of meituan coupon is longer than Duoduo / pancai. In addition, the full reduction of bonds is more than 10%. ② In terms of commodity richness, meituan > = prosperity preference > shopping for vegetables > buy more vegetables. Among them, meituan has rich SKUs, thanks to the largest number of daily regular SKUs + the rich selection of new year goods Festival, the wide range of prosperity preference categories, the regional characteristics of shopping for vegetables are differentiated, the goods of Duonian goods Festival are the least, and brand activities are the main in the early stage. In addition, the platform ensures the richness and exposure of commodities through regular rotation of brands & categories. Each family has different choices in brand category combination strategy. The special category area is the main part of vegetable panning, and other families have both.
Investment proposal and investment object
We are optimistic about the sinking market growth brought by the community group purchase business model and the improvement of commodity supply chain and warehouse allocation efficiency. At present, the business model of community group purchase is not mature, the chain is long and the business is complex. In the future, it will become a protracted war, which is a comprehensive test of the company's goods, performance, customer acquisition, organization management and strategy selection. The investment of meituan in this year's goods Festival is large, and the advantages of headquarters unified management + regional autonomy appear in the planned battle. It is suggested to pay attention to: meituan-w (03690, buy), pinduoduo (PDD. O, buy), Alibaba SW (09988, buy), JD group SW (09618, buy), and the prosperity and optimization of industrial regional leaders.
Risk tips
Policy supervision risk, business growth does not meet expectations, and the sample data may not represent the whole market situation
