The national development and Reform Commission will improve the coal price range mechanism, and the benchmark price of the long-term association may be set at 670 yuan
On February 24, the national development and Reform Commission held a special press conference to introduce the recently issued notice on further improving the coal market price formation mechanism (hereinafter referred to as the notice). The notice specifies the reasonable range of coal price, that is, the reasonable range of annual long-term association coal price (including tax) of 5500 kcal thermal coal in QinGang is 570 ~ 770 yuan / ton. It is inferred that the new benchmark price of the annual long-term association may be 670 yuan / ton, which is 30 yuan lower than the benchmark price of the thermal coal long-term association (700 yuan / ton) published in the previous exposure draft. At the same time, it is narrower than the previous range (550 ~ 850 yuan / ton) and the volatility is reduced. The mine mouth coal price range is formed according to the port coal price and considering the circulation cost of intermediate links. In case of exceeding the reasonable price range, the national development and Reform Commission will timely take all necessary means and measures, including reminder, interview, cost investigation, price intervention, as well as all other necessary means and measures stipulated by laws and regulations such as the price law, to guide the reasonable return of coal prices. The improvement of the coal price mechanism is of great significance, which helps to stabilize the market coal price expectation, prevent the sharp fluctuation of coal price, stabilize the coal supply in the producing area and promote the stable operation of the economy.
The weakening of coal power game is conducive to maintaining stable profits for both sides
The reasonable range of coal price of the national development and Reform Commission is determined on the basis of fully considering the cost, taking into account the upstream and downstream interests of coal and electricity, realizing the effective connection with the “benchmark price + fluctuation of no more than 20%” electricity price range of coal-fired power generation. Within the reasonable range, the prices of coal and electricity can be effectively transmitted, and the “electricity can be guaranteed at the upper limit and coal can be guaranteed at the lower limit” can be effectively realized. Coal price, on grid price and user price realize “three price linkage” through market-oriented way, fundamentally straighten out the price relationship between coal and electricity, help to solve the problem of “coal and electricity topping the bull”, and lay a foundation for both coal and electricity to maintain stable profits and achieve high-quality development.
Coal price regulation has been the consensus of the market, and the long logic will not be changed
Since the national development and Reform Commission first proposed the coal price limit in October 2021, the market coal price has experienced several rounds of policy side regulation, and the upper limit space has gradually shrunk. At present, the main price limit standards for spot coal prices are 900 yuan / ton for ports and 700 yuan / ton for pits proposed at the meeting of the national development and Reform Commission on February 9, and 725 yuan / ton for two consecutive months. At present, it is a market consensus that there is a policy ceiling in the coal price. The reduction of the benchmark price of Changxie by 30 yuan has a relatively limited impact on the fundamentals of gaochangxie coal enterprises. It does not change the long-term logic of substantial remodeling of the coal price center under the background of energy reform. The further improvement of the interval mechanism also provides a policy basis for the stability of the high coal price, and the predictability of the performance of coal enterprises is further improved. At present, the driving force of the coal sector is no longer the elastic release of performance supported by price. The short-term high performance of coal enterprises has been gradually recognized by the market, and the stable release of performance in the medium and long term is the key factor to clear the expected obstacles and guide the reconstruction of coal stock valuation.
High long-term association leading coal prices can be expected to reshape the valuation
We believe that the performance improvement trend of the leading target of power coal of the high proportion long-term association will be continued, the establishment of the interval price control mechanism will also weaken the cyclical fluctuation, and the certainty of stable performance will be further improved. It will also ensure that relevant coal enterprises maintain high dividend policy, and the high dividend rate highlights the long-term investment value. Compared with the obvious improvement of performance, the undervalued value of coal stocks is still obvious. We are optimistic about the valuation repair of leading coal enterprises and further valuation remodeling. Beneficiary objects: China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , power investment and energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) . In addition, Yankuang energy, which accounts for a high proportion of overseas production, will still enjoy the high elasticity brought by overseas high coal prices.
Risk tip: downside risk of economic growth; Supply and demand mismatch risk; Risk of accelerated substitution of renewable energy
