Core view:
Social finance and credit reached a new high, and medium and long-term loans to enterprises were repaired. In January, social finance increased by 6.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.98 trillion yuan year-on-year, mainly benefiting from the impact of the high growth of credit and government debt. Among them, RMB loans increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 381.8 billion yuan year-on-year; Government bonds increased by 602.6 billion yuan, an increase of 358.9 billion yuan year-on-year; New corporate bond financing was 579.9 billion yuan, an increase of 188.2 billion yuan year-on-year; The domestic stock financing of non-financial enterprises increased by 143.9 billion yuan, an increase of 44.8 billion yuan year-on-year; Off balance sheet financing increased by 447.9 billion yuan, an increase of 32.8 billion yuan year-on-year. Structurally, short-term loans and bill financing continued to increase, and medium and long-term loans of enterprises were repaired. In January, short-term loans increased by 1.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 207.3 billion yuan year-on-year; New bill financing was 178.8 billion yuan, an increase of 319.3 billion yuan year-on-year; Medium and long-term loans increased by 2.84 trillion yuan, a decrease of 142.4 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, the medium and long-term loans of new enterprises were 2.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 60 billion yuan year-on-year.
The loan interest rate of financial institutions fell, and there is still room for policies to take into account the total amount + structure and force. The 2021q4 monetary policy implementation report shows that by the end of 2021, the weighted average interest rate of RMB loans of financial institutions was 4.76%, down 24bp month on month; The interest rates of general loans, enterprise loans and bill financing have declined to varying degrees, which is expected to be affected by multiple factors such as weak credit demand, interest rate reduction and low interest rate bill impulse. In addition, the report pointed out that we should give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, pay attention to sufficient force, accurate force and forward force, and realize a better combination of stable total amount and excellent structure. The current policy takes into account the total amount + structure. We believe that there is still room for further efforts, and the effect of credit easing is expected to continue to be released, which will help the steady increase and structural optimization of bank credit, and support the macroeconomic repair.
In 2021q4, banks, independent fund sales institutions, insurance companies and securities companies have stock + mixed public funds of 3.79, 1.67, 0.03 and 0.94 trillion yuan; The scale of non monetary public funds is 4.4, 2.83, 0.04 and 1.02 trillion yuan. At the same time, the scale of bank stock + mixed and non monetary public funds accounted for 58.6% and 52.79%, down 0.53 and 1.6 percentage points month on month. In contrast, the market share of third-party institutions has further increased, and the bank consignment business urgently needs transformation and adjustment to consolidate market competitiveness.
The performance of commercial banks continued to increase, and the fundamentals were stable and positive. In 2021, the net profit of commercial banks increased by 12.63% year-on-year, further expanding from 11.45% in the first three quarters of 2021. Among them, state-owned banks and joint-stock banks led the growth rate, and urban commercial banks improved significantly. At the same time, the net interest margin of banks stabilized and the repair trend remained unchanged. In 2021q4, the net interest margin of commercial banks was 2.08%, up 1bp month on month. In terms of asset quality, the non-performing rate and provision coverage are differentiated, the performance of state-owned banks and joint-stock banks is relatively good, and the improvement of capital adequacy ratio is more obvious.
It is suggested that the policy of steady growth should be strengthened to support the underlying macro-economy, and the effect of credit relief should be gradually released, which is conducive to the improvement of the banking business environment and the recovery of prosperity, and help to increase credit supply and optimize asset quality. At present, the annual performance express of 2021 disclosed by several listed banks shows that the growth rate of revenue continues to improve, the net profit maintains rapid growth, the non-performing rate and provision coverage both perform well, and the overall fundamentals are stable and worry free, which supports the valuation. At present, the Pb of the sector is 0.66 times, at a historical low, and the configuration value is prominent. We continue to be optimistic about investment opportunities in the banking sector and give a "recommended" rating. For individual stocks, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (600036), Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) (002142), Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) (601128) and Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) (601009) are recommended.
The risk indicates that the macroeconomic growth rate is lower than expected, resulting in the risk of deterioration of bank asset quality.
