Complete vehicle: Tesla leads the general trend of body die casting in the era of electric intelligence
The integrated die casting technology combines the stamping and welding in the traditional car making process. More than 70 parts of the rear base sector of model 3 are integrally die cast into two large parts of model y, which saves about 20% of the production cost and shortens the welding time from 2H to 90s. At the same time, it also has the advantages of improving the accuracy level, improving the recycling rate of raw materials and shortening the development cycle of the model. The model iteration of traditional automobile is mainly hardware iteration, and the life cycle is generally 5 years. In the era of electric intelligence, automobile has become a new intelligent terminal that can be iterated, and the iteration cycle is shortened to once a year. Under the electric intelligence, the product differentiation of brands is very important, and automotive products need to have the ability of continuous evolution. Integrated die casting can make the hardware more standardized, the development cycle shorter, match the software update speed, and adapt to the characteristics of the electric intelligent era.
Parts: aluminum die-casting parts are developing towards large-scale and integration
Driven by the demand for lightweight, with the further improvement of the application technology of aluminum alloy materials, its application scope in the automotive field will gradually extend to large parts now dominated by steel castings, such as hood, fender, door, rear compartment, roof, vehicle body and so on. From the perspective of manufacturing process, the car body has developed from stamping and welding to integrated die casting under the guidance of Tesla; The parts and components of die-casting mainly have three processes: stamping, casting and forging. Driven by the demand of lightweight design, the key parts are developing in the direction of high-pressure die-casting, large-scale and integration.
Aluminum die casting industry has a broad space, and the industrial chain ushers in localization opportunities
It is assumed that the applicable parts of integrated die casting in 2030 are 9 parts, including front, middle and rear base sector, battery pack, motor electric control shell, subframe, door * 4 and rear cover. It is assumed that the penetration rate of integrated die casting of new energy vehicles is 60% and that of traditional vehicles is 30%. Upstream aluminum: in 2016, the aluminum used by single passenger car was about 110kg, which is expected to reach 242kg by 2030. The global aluminum market for passenger car is expected to grow from 99.9 billion yuan in 2016 to 363 billion yuan. Large die casting machines: we predict that in 2030, the overall demand for large die casting machines in the world will be about 2800 sets, and the overall market capacity will be about 224 billion yuan. Downstream parts: we predict that the global large-scale die casting volume of auto parts will be about 340 million in 2030, and the market scale will be about 510-680 billion yuan. It is suggested to pay attention to the enterprises with earlier production capacity layout and technical reserves, the upstream is suggested to pay attention to the auto aluminum suppliers such as Jiangsu Asia-Pacific Light Alloy Technology Co.Ltd(002540) , Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co.Ltd(300428) , the equipment end is suggested to pay attention to the tap of Guangdong Yizumi Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(300415) equal pressure casting machine, and the downstream parts are suggested to pay attention to the independent auto parts enterprises with forward-looking layout of large die-casting equipment such as Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) .
Risk tips
Risks such as macroeconomic downturn, lower than expected automobile sales, tightening of new energy policies, and lower than expected application of integrated die casting main engine factory.
