Key investment points
How do you view this round of paper price increase at the current time?
Pulp: since the end of the 21st century, the supply chain of core pulp producing countries has been disturbed, the transportation capacity is tight, and the short-term supply and demand is in a tight balance; Superimposed on the tension between Russia and Ukraine, the rise of commodity prices is supported, and the support power of pulp prices is sufficient. It is expected that the short-term pulp will continue to fluctuate at a high level.
Cultural paper: since 21q4, the import disturbance has weakened, the export has become stronger, the peak bidding season is coming, the supply and demand pattern is improving in the short term, the short-term impact of new production capacity is limited, the inventory & operating rate is low, and the cost support is superimposed. It is expected that there is a high probability of price increase and landing in March.
White card paper: from 21q4, the export of white card industry showed marginal increment and continued trend, superimposed with low inventory and cost support. Under the background of nearly 90% industry concentration and strong willingness of leading enterprises to raise prices, it is judged that the price increase in March is expected to fall.
Special paper: the expansion of the leader is accelerating, the voice is becoming stronger, the price remains strong, and the landing probability of this round of price increase is high under the support of cost.
Investment advice
Focus on pattern deduction, and select Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) and Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) . (1) Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) Guangxi phase II project is progressing smoothly. The self-sufficiency rate of the company's pulp reaches 55% - 60%, which can well suppress the impact of wood pulp price fluctuations. We look forward to the double improvement of scale and efficiency in 22 years. At present, the price rise of the company's cultural paper has been gradually implemented; The cost advantage of semi chemical pulp is obvious, and the profit performance of box board paper is good (the main contributor of profit in the fourth quarter). It is expected that the profit of 22q1 company is expected to bottom up and rise. It has come to the dark time, and the value on the left is prominent. It is recommended continuously! (2) Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) : the cost of 21q4 is squeezed and the profit is damaged. At present, the energy cost has fallen and the price increase is expected to fall, and now it has entered the repair range; The company has entered the high-speed expansion period of setting production by sales, continued to enrich the product matrix, is optimistic about the continuous improvement of market share, outstanding medium-term growth and continuous recommendation!
Risk tips
Competition intensifies, the rise of pulp is less than expected, and the rise of paper price is less than expected
