Key investment points:
The transformation of global energy structure is accelerated, and policies promote the development of hydrogen energy industry. Affected by global warming, the continuous consumption of non renewable fossil energy and other factors, the global energy consumption structure is accelerating the transformation to low-carbon. Major countries in the world signed the Paris climate agreement in 2016, formed a climate consensus and formulated carbon dioxide emission reduction plans one after another. China announced the “double carbon goal” in 2020, that is, carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutralization in 2060. In this energy transformation, many countries are vigorously developing hydrogen energy because of its advantages such as clean and pollution-free, high energy density per unit mass, storable, renewable and wide sources. From 2016 to 2022, China’s Ministry of industry and information technology, the State Council, the national development and Reform Commission and other departments and local governments successively issued policies to support the development of hydrogen energy industry.
The demand for hydrogen energy has accelerated, and the development space of hydrogen energy industry is huge. In 2020, China’s hydrogen demand will be about 33.42 million tons. By 2030, China’s annual hydrogen demand will increase to 37.15 million tons, accounting for about 5% of the terminal energy consumption. By 2060, China’s annual hydrogen demand will increase to about 130 million tons, accounting for about 20% of the terminal energy consumption. China’s hydrogen demand will gradually increase in the future. At present, China’s annual output of hydrogen ranks first in the world, with an annual output of 25 million tons. At the same time, China is also the world’s largest producer and marketer of hydrogen storage materials. China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) and national energy group are the two largest hydrogen production enterprises in China, accounting for 30% of the market share. There are many other hydrogen production enterprises, the scale of hydrogen production is relatively small, and the market competition pattern is relatively scattered. As other large central enterprises enter the hydrogen energy industry, the market concentration of the hydrogen energy industry is expected to increase in the future. At present, more than one-third of central enterprises are in the layout of the whole industrial chain, including hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, hydrogenation, hydrogen use and so on. There is a huge space for the development of hydrogen energy industry.
At present, hydrogen production is still dominated by fossil fuels, with fuel cells as the key application direction. At present, the hydrogen is mainly gray hydrogen, accounting for about 95% of the global hydrogen production. Coal to olefin will still be the main way of hydrogen production in China during the 14th Five Year Plan period. At present, the cost of hydrogen production from electrolyzed water is high, and the future development space of proton exchange membrane electrolyzed water (PEM) is broad. At present, the hydrogen storage technology is mainly high-pressure gaseous hydrogen storage. The localization of hydrogen storage bottles will be accelerated, and the type IV bottles will be further widely used in the future. Hydrogen fuel cell is the most widely used fifth generation fuel cell at present. As its core component, membrane electrode will greatly open the growth space of the industry with the growth of the demand for hydrogen fuel cell.
Investment advice: ready to go, straight up the “hydrogen” cloud. The national “14th five year plan” mentioned that to accelerate the development of hydrogen energy industry, with the continuous promotion of policies, the hydrogen energy industry chain will be further improved, and the growth space in key areas of the hydrogen energy industry chain will be continuously widened. Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) (002080), Guangdong No.2 Hydropower Engineering Company Ltd(002060) (002060), Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) (600875) are recommended.
Risk warning: hydrogen energy development is not as expected; Hydrogen energy safety accident risk; International trade friction risk; The advancement of new technologies was less than expected.
