New energy power generation: the high level of silicon material is stabilizing, and the sea breeze bidding is advancing steadily
In terms of photovoltaic, the supply and demand of upstream polysilicon materials are still in tight balance in 2022, and the price has reached about 230-240 yuan. With the release of new polysilicon production capacity in the second half of the year, it is expected that the component price will gradually callback to about 1.7-1.8 yuan / W. The household and industrial and commercial markets continued to develop. In 2021, China’s household photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 21.5gw, a year-on-year increase of 114%, exceeding market expectations. In 2022, the overseas market will continue to contribute to the high growth rate of installed capacity. TOPCON is expected to take the lead in large-scale production in 2022, and the cost reduction route of heterojunction is becoming clearer and clearer. Some integrated enterprises are expected to benefit from the lower cost of upstream silicon, and n-type batteries are expected to obtain a technology premium in a certain period of time in the future.
In terms of wind power, the installed capacity of onshore wind power is expected to reach more than 50gw in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of more than 40%; The construction process of Haifeng bidding is accelerated, and the bidding unit price of EPC general contracting is close to 11000 yuan / kW in the near future. In 2022, we are optimistic about the prosperity of the whole industry, focusing on land wind machine and tower enterprises with low price sensitivity of materials; Offshore wind power is optimistic about the subsea cable casting sector. It is a leading enterprise with high industry barriers, good competition pattern and overseas development potential.
In terms of energy storage, in February, the national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration officially issued the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan, proposing that by 2025, the new energy storage will have the conditions for large-scale commercial application, the performance of electrochemical energy storage technology will be further improved and the system cost will be reduced by more than 30%; By 2030, new energy storage will be fully market-oriented. The policy supports the development of new energy storage tracks. It is suggested to pay attention to the development of key core technologies such as sodium ion battery, new lithium ion battery, lead carbon battery, liquid flow battery, compressed air, hydrogen (ammonia) energy storage and hot (cold) energy storage.
New energy vehicles and lithium batteries: the leading target of paying attention to new technologies and reasonable valuation under high vision
After the price rise of new energy vehicles, the sales volume in January again exceeded the market expectation, confirming the high prosperity of the downstream; Tesla 4680 battery is about to be loaded, which promotes the increase of shipments of relevant new technology products. We continue to be optimistic about the leading targets with good pattern and reasonable valuation: 1) 4680 battery benefit areas: battery enterprises with early layout ( Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) ), high nickel positive electrode ( Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) ), silicon-based negative electrode ( Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) ), carbon nanotube ( Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) ), new lithium salt ( Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) ); 2) Import substitution of consumer batteries, smooth price rise and excellent pattern. Recommend electric tool batteries ( Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) ) and 3C lithium battery consumption China leader ( Zhuhai Cosmx Battery Co.Ltd(688772) ).
Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to the high-quality target with low value and high growth in each sector
[photovoltaic] Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Sineng Electric Co.Ltd(300827) , Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) ;
[wind power] Qingdao Tianneng Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(300569) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) ;
[new energy construction and operator] Jiangsu New Energy Development Co.Ltd(603693) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) ;
[lithium battery] Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Zhuhai Cosmx Battery Co.Ltd(688772) .
Risk warning: policy change risk; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The production and sales of electric vehicles were less than expected.
