Carbon fiber has excellent properties and high barriers to process and equipment. Carbon fiber is known as the “king of new materials”. It has excellent mechanical properties such as specific strength and specific modulus, and has the characteristics of low density, corrosion resistance, high temperature resistance and fatigue resistance. PAN based carbon fiber is the main type of carbon fiber at present. Its whole process production process is difficult and the equipment barrier is high. The composite made of PAN based carbon fiber as reinforcement has better performance.
The demand for carbon fiber continues to grow, and China’s structural differences contain opportunities. Over the past 10 years, the global demand for carbon fiber has increased steadily, with 107000 tons in 2020, 200000 tons in 2025 and 13.3% CAGR in five years. At present, China’s carbon fiber industry has entered a period of rapid development. The demand will be 49000 tons in 2020 and 150000 tons by 2025. The proportion of global demand is expected to further increase from 46% to 75%. Compared with the multi-point flowering in the global demand distribution of carbon fiber, the application of carbon fiber in the field of wind power blades and sports and leisure with low unit price in China accounts for more than 71%, while the total demand in high-end fields such as aerospace accounts for less than 10%. In the future, with the further improvement of the localization rate of China’s carbon fiber products and the supply capacity of the industrial chain, there will be transformation and development opportunities in relevant industrial fields.
Excellent materials for both military and civil use, and the application field of carbon fiber continues to expand. With its excellent performance, carbon fiber was used in the national defense industry as a strategic material at the beginning of its birth. Later, with the promotion of commercialization and the continuous reduction of cost, the application scope of carbon fiber continued to expand and gradually shine in the civil field. In terms of military, the demand for carbon fiber is mainly driven by the upgrading demand of military aircraft and the increase in the application proportion of single machine. In terms of civil use, the penetration rate of carbon fiber in wind power, aviation, automobile and sports applications has increased rapidly. It is estimated that the global demand will reach 106000 tons, 26000 tons, 18000 tons and 20000 tons respectively in 2025.
At that time, China’s carbon fiber industry ushered in a good opportunity for development and layout. Due to the lack of core technology and the poor adaptability of imported equipment, there has been a long-term phenomenon of “production capacity but no output” in China’s carbon fiber industry, and the actual global carbon fiber production capacity is still concentrated in Japanese and American enterprises. With the tightening of overseas supply, China’s supply and demand gap continues to expand. However, with the continuous support of Chinese policies and funds, the progress of domestic carbon fiber quality improvement, increment and cost reduction has accelerated. In the future, the capacity increment of the global carbon fiber industry will be mainly contributed by Chinese manufacturers. China’s carbon fiber output is expected to reach 83000 tons in 2025. At that time, the localization rate will be further increased to 55%. China’s carbon fiber industry has the subjective ability and objective basis for the rise.
Relevant targets: it is suggested to pay attention to Jilin Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000420) with imminent release of carbon fiber capacity of civil products, domestic equipment whole line supplier Zhejiang Jinggong Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002006) , and Zhongfu Shenying, Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) and Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) with both precursor and carbon fiber capacity.
Risk warning: the risk of sharp fluctuations in the price of raw materials; Downstream demand is lower than expected; Production capacity construction progress is less than expected; Import risk of key production equipment and technology restrictions; The excessive concentration of production capacity leads to the risk of short-term oversupply.
